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Trade-off between job losses and the spread of COVID-19 in Japan

Author

Listed:
  • Kisho Hoshi

    (Vancouver School of Economics, UBC)

  • Hiroyuki Kasahara

    (Vancouver School of Economics, UBC)

  • Ryo Makioka

    (Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI))

  • Michio Suzuki

    (Cabinet Office and Tohoku University)

  • Satoshi Tanaka

    (University of Queensland)

Abstract

This paper quantitatively analyzes the trade-off between job losses and the spread of COVID-19 in Japan. We derive an empirical specification from the social planner’s resource constraint under the susceptible, infected, recovered, and deaths (SIRD) model and estimate how job losses and the case growth rate are related to people’s mobility using the Japanese prefecture-level panel data on confirmed cases, involuntary job losses, people’s mobility, and teleworkability. Our findings are summarized as follows. First, we find that a decrease in mobility driven by containment policies is associated with an increase in involuntary job separations, but the high teleworkability mitigates the negative effect of decreased mobility on job losses. Second, estimating how the case growth is related to people’s mobility and past cases, we find that the case growth rate is positively related to an increase in people’s mobility but negatively associated with past confirmed cases. Third, using these estimates, we provide a quantitative analysis of the trade-off between job losses and the number of confirmed cases. Taking Tokyo in July 2020 as a benchmark, we find that the cost of saving 1 job per month is 2.3 more confirmed cases per month in the short run of 1 month. When we consider a trade-off for 3 months from July to September of 2020, protecting 1 job per month requires 6.6 more confirmed cases per month. Therefore, the trade-off becomes worse substantially in the longer run of 3 months, reflecting the exponential case growth when the people’s mobility is high.

Suggested Citation

  • Kisho Hoshi & Hiroyuki Kasahara & Ryo Makioka & Michio Suzuki & Satoshi Tanaka, 2021. "Trade-off between job losses and the spread of COVID-19 in Japan," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 72(4), pages 683-716, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jecrev:v:72:y:2021:i:4:d:10.1007_s42973-021-00092-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s42973-021-00092-w
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    1. Hoshi, Kisho & Kasahara, Hiroyuki & Makioka, Ryo & Suzuki, Michio & Tanaka, Satoshi, 2022. "The heterogeneous effects of COVID-19 on labor markets: People’s movement and non-pharmaceutical interventions," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    2. Shibamoto, Masahiko & Hayaki, Shoka & Ogisu, Yoshitaka, 2022. "COVID-19 infection spread and human mobility," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    3. Michihito Ando & Masato Furuichi, 2022. "The association of COVID-19 employment shocks with suicide and safety net use: An early-stage investigation," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(3), pages 1-26, March.
    4. INOUE Tomoo & OKIMOTO Tatsuyoshi, 2022. "Exploring the Dynamic Relationship between Mobility and the Spread of COVID-19, and the Role of Vaccines," Discussion papers 22011, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    5. Satoshi Tanaka, 2022. "Economic Impacts of SARS/MERS/COVID‐19 in Asian Countries," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 17(1), pages 41-61, January.
    6. MORIKAWA Masayuki, 2022. "Productivity Dynamics of Work from Home since the Onset of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from a panel of firm surveys," Discussion papers 22061, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

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