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Harnessing advances in computer simulation to inform policy and planning to reduce alcohol-related harms

Author

Listed:
  • Jo-An Atkinson

    (Sax Institute
    Sax Institute
    University of Sydney)

  • Dylan Knowles

    (Sax Institute
    Anthrodynamics Simulation Services)

  • John Wiggers

    (Sax Institute
    Hunter New England Population Health
    University of Newcastle)

  • Michael Livingston

    (La Trobe University
    Karolinska Institutet)

  • Robin Room

    (La Trobe University
    Stockholm University)

  • Ante Prodan

    (Sax Institute
    Western Sydney University)

  • Geoff McDonnell

    (Sax Institute
    Sax Institute)

  • Eloise O’Donnell

    (Sax Institute)

  • Sandra Jones

    (Australian Catholic University)

  • Paul S. Haber

    (University of Sydney
    Royal Prince Alfred Hospital)

  • David Muscatello

    (University of NSW)

  • Nadine Ezard

    (University of NSW
    St Vincent’s Hospital)

  • Nghi Phung

    (Drug Health Western Sydney Local Health District
    Westmead Institute of Medical Research)

  • Louise Freebairn

    (Sax Institute
    ACT Health
    University of Notre Dame Australia)

  • Devon Indig

    (Sax Institute
    University of Sydney)

  • Lucie Rychetnik

    (Sax Institute
    University of Notre Dame Australia)

  • Jaithri Ananthapavan

    (Deakin University)

  • Sonia Wutzke

    (Sax Institute
    University of Sydney)

Abstract

Objectives Alcohol misuse is a complex systemic problem. The aim of this study was to explore the feasibility of using a transparent and participatory agent-based modelling approach to develop a robust decision support tool to test alcohol policy scenarios before they are implemented in the real world. Methods A consortium of Australia’s leading alcohol experts was engaged to collaboratively develop an agent-based model of alcohol consumption behaviour and related harms. As a case study, four policy scenarios were examined. Results A 19.5 ± 2.5% reduction in acute alcohol-related harms was estimated with the implementation of a 3 a.m. licensed venue closing time plus 1 a.m. lockout; and a 9 ± 2.6% reduction in incidence was estimated with expansion of treatment services to reach 20% of heavy drinkers. Combining the two scenarios produced a 33.3 ± 2.7% reduction in the incidence of acute alcohol-related harms, suggesting a synergistic effect. Conclusions This study demonstrates the feasibility of participatory development of a contextually relevant computer simulation model of alcohol-related harms and highlights the value of the approach in identifying potential policy responses that best leverage limited resources.

Suggested Citation

  • Jo-An Atkinson & Dylan Knowles & John Wiggers & Michael Livingston & Robin Room & Ante Prodan & Geoff McDonnell & Eloise O’Donnell & Sandra Jones & Paul S. Haber & David Muscatello & Nadine Ezard & Ng, 2018. "Harnessing advances in computer simulation to inform policy and planning to reduce alcohol-related harms," International Journal of Public Health, Springer;Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+), vol. 63(4), pages 537-546, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:ijphth:v:63:y:2018:i:4:d:10.1007_s00038-017-1041-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s00038-017-1041-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Ben Fitzpatrick & Jason Martinez, 2012. "Agent-Based Modeling of Ecological Niche Theory and Assortative Drinking," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 15(2), pages 1-4.
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    Cited by:

    1. Funk, Tjede & Sharma, Tarang & Chapman, Evelina & Kuchenmüller, Tanja, 2022. "Translating health information into policy-making: A pragmatic framework," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 16-23.

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