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OPTIMIRUS. Simulating Population Change in the Russian Far East

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Listed:
  • Katja Mueller

    (Point Topic Ltd)

  • Michael J. Bradshaw

    (University of Leicester)

Abstract

This article examines the population trends in the cities of the Russian Far East between the two census years 1989 and 2002. Three geographical models – Rank-Size Rule, Temperature per Capita and a simple gravity model – are used to describe the direction of these population trends. An economic efficiency function is constructed from the three models to simulate an ideal population distribution for the Russian Far East. The heart of the simulation is a conjugate gradient optimisation of the economic efficiency function. The results serve as an important backdrop to discussions of current population trends and serve as an important backdrop to discussions of current population trends and as basis for recommendations concerning future changes in the spatial distribution of population in the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Katja Mueller & Michael J. Bradshaw, 2006. "OPTIMIRUS. Simulating Population Change in the Russian Far East," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 22(2), pages 105-125, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eurpop:v:22:y:2006:i:2:d:10.1007_s10680-005-4769-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s10680-005-4769-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Annette N. Brown, 1997. "The Economic Determinants of the Internal Migration Flows in Russia During Transition," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 89, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    2. Ira N. Gang & Robert C. Stuart, 1999. "Mobility where mobility is illegal: Internal migration and city growth in the Soviet Union," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 12(1), pages 117-134.
    3. Yuri Andrienko & Sergei Guriev, 2004. "Determinants of interregional mobility in Russia," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 12(1), pages 1-27, March.
    4. Vladimir Kontorovich, 2000. "Can Russia Resettle the Far East?," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 365-384.
    5. Heleniak, Timothy, 1999. "Migration from the Russian north during the transition period," Social Protection Discussion Papers and Notes 20818, The World Bank.
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