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Asymptotic confidence bands for the estimated autocovariance and autocorrelation functions of vector autoregressive models

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Günter Coenen ()

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Abstract

This paper provides closed-form formulae for computing the asymptotic covariance matrices of the estimated autocovariance and autocorrelation functions of stable VAR models by means of the delta method. These covariance matrices can be used to construct asymptotic confidence bands for the estimated autocovariance and autocorrelation functions to assess the underlying estimation uncertainty. The usefulness of the formulae for empirical work is illustrated by an application to inflation and output gap data for the U.S. economy indicating the existence of a significant short-run Phillips-curve tradeoff. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2005

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00181-004-0214-8
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Springer in its journal Empirical Economics.

Volume (Year): 30 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 65-75
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Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:30:y:2005:i:1:p:65-75

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Related research
Keywords: Vector autoregressive models; autocovariance and autocorrelation functions; confidence bands; delta method; phillips curve; C13; C32; E31;

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  1. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G, 1998. "Graphical Methods for Investigating the Size and Power of Hypothesis Tests," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 66(1), pages 1-26, January.
    Other versions:
  3. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1998. "Monetary Policy Shocks: What Have We Learned and to What End?," NBER Working Papers 6400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Small-Sample Confidence Intervals For Impulse Response Functions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 218-230, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Gunter Coenen & Volker Wieland, 2000. "A Small Estimated Euro-Area Model with Rational Expectations and Nominal Rigidities," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1284, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1998. "Measuring Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(3), pages 869-902, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Bennett T. McCallum, 1999. "Analysis of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism: Methodological Issues," NBER Working Papers 7395, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. G. S. Hongyi Li, 1996. "Bootstrapping time series models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 115-158. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Carsten Detken & Vincent Brousseau, 2001. "Monetary policy and fears of financial instability," Working Paper Series 089, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jean-Bernard Chatelain & Andrea Generale & Ignacio Hernando & Philip Vermeulen & Ulf von Kalckreuth, 2001. "Firm investment and monetary policy transmission in the Euro area," Working Paper Series 112, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Bernhard Winkler, 2000. "Which kind of transparency? On the need for clarity in monetary policy-making," Working Paper Series 26, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Michael Ehrmann & Frank Smets, 2001. "Uncertain potential output: implications for monetary policy," Working Paper Series 059, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Gunter Coenen & Volker Wieland, 2000. "A Simple Estimated Euro Area Model With Rational Expectations And Nominal Rigidities," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 187, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Gian Maria Tomat, 2002. "Durable goods; price indexes and quality change: an application to automobile prices in Italy, 1988-1998," Working Paper Series 118, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  7. Günter Coenen & Volker Wieland, 2000. "A small estimated Euro area model with rational expectations and nominal rigidities," Working Paper Series 30, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Andreas Beyer & Roger E. A. Farmer, 2002. "Natural rate doubts," Working Paper Series 121, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Stefan Straetmans & Casper G. De Vries & Philipp Hartmann, 2001. "Asset market linkages in crisis periods," Working Paper Series 071, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Günter Coenen & Volker Wieland, 2002. "Inflation dynamics and international linkages: a model of the United States, the euro area and Japan," Working Paper Series 181, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Eugenio Gaiotti & Andrea Generale, 2001. "Does monetary policy have asymmetric effects? A look at the investment decisions of Italian firms," Working Paper Series 110, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Gonzalo Camba-Mendez & George Kapetanios, 2001. "Spectral based methods to identify common trends and common cycles," Working Paper Series 062, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  13. Fiorella de Fiore, 2000. "Can indeterminacy explain the short-run non-neutrality of money?," Working Paper Series 32, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  14. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2002. "Monetary policy; expectations and commitment," Working Paper Series 124, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Günter Coenen & Andrew T. Levin, 2004. "Identifying the influences of nominal and real rigidities in aggregate price-setting behavior," Working Paper Series 418, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Guenter Coenen & Athanasios Orphanides & Volker Wieland, 2003. "Price Stability and Monetary Policy Effectiveness when Nominal Interest Rates are Bounded at Zero," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/13, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Livio Stracca & Ali Al-Nowaihi, 2002. "Non-standard Central Bank loss functions; skewed risks; and certainty equivalence," Working Paper Series 129, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  18. Miguel Casares, 2001. "Business cycle and monetary policy analysis in a structural sticky-price model of the euro area," Working Paper Series 49, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Fiorella de Fiore, 2000. "The optimal inflation tax when taxes are costly to collect," Working Paper Series 38, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  20. Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2002. "Learning stability in economics with heterogenous agents," Working Paper Series 120, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Andreas Worms, 2001. "The reaction of bank lending to monetary policy measures in Germany," Working Paper Series 096, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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