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Implementing and interpreting indicators of core inflation: the case of France

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Author Info
Franck Sédillot (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany)
Hervé Le Bihan () (Banque de France, 41-1391 DGEI-DEER-Centre de recherche, 31 rue Croix des Petits Champs, 75001 PARIS)

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Abstract

This paper presents a comparison of alternative indicators of underlying or "core" inflation in the French case. Four broad measures are considered and implemented. The first two are inflation excluding food and energy, and the trimmed inflation indicator. We then implement two methods relying on time-series models: the Dynamic Factor Index and the structural VAR approach.

Each indicator stresses on a particular type of shock on the inflation rate, so that no simple ranking of the measures emerges. Combining the various indicators conveys valuable information for appraising short term inflation developments. As regards theoretical interpretation, no indicator is fully satisfactory, lacking an explicit representation of monetary policy. However, comparing forecast performance with respect to inflation provides some specific support in favor of trimmed mean indicators.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Springer in its journal Empirical Economics.

Volume (Year): 27 (2002)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 473-497
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Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:27:y:2002:i:3:p:473-497

Note: received: January 2000/Final version received: March 2001
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Related research
Keywords: Core inflation; Trimmed mean estimators; Dynamic Factor Index;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

Cited by:
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  1. L. Aucremanne, 2001. "The use of Robust Estimators as Measures of Core Inflation," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 61, Netherlands Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. Francesco P. Mongelli & Oliver De Bandt, 2000. "Convergence of fiscal policies in the Euro area," Working Paper Series 20, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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