Power issues when testing the Markov switching model with the sup likelihood ratio test using U.S. output
AbstractThe likelihood ratio (LR) test statistic for the test of a linear AR(1) model against the alternative of a Markov switching model does not possess the standard 2 distribution. Garcia (1998) derives the asymptotic distribution of the Sup LR test statistic under these non-standard conditions allowing the researcher to easily compare the two models. This paper examines the power properties of this test statistic using Monte Carlo experiments calibrated to U.S. output growth data. The results suggest a test of reasonable power. When the experiments are calibrated to annual data, power is 82% at 200 observations. When the experiments are calibrated to quarterly data power is 57% for the same sample size.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Springer in its journal Empirical Economics.
Volume (Year): 27 (2002)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Note: Received: March 2000/Final Version Received: March 2001
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- Yin-Wong Cheung & Ulf G. Erlandsson, 2004.
"Exchange Rates and Markov Switching Dynamics,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
1348, CESifo Group Munich.
- Lanouar Charfeddine & Dominique Guegan, 2008. "Is it possible to discriminate between different switching regressions models? An empirical investigation," Post-Print halshs-00368358, HAL.
- Apostolos Thomadakis, 2012. "Contagion or Flight-to-Quality Phenomena in Stock and Bond Returns," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0612, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
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