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The autocratic gamble: evidence from robust variance tests

Author

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  • Fabio Monteforte

    (University of Messina)

  • Jonathan R. W. Temple

Abstract

This paper examines whether autocracy is a gamble. Using robust variance tests and other analyses, we find that long-term growth varies more across autocracies than across democracies. This remains true even when richer countries are excluded from the sample. We also investigate channels, to see if the higher variance of growth outcomes across autocracies can be traced to a higher variance in investment ratios or productivity growth. Overall, the paper’s findings suggest that growth prospects are more uncertain for autocracies than democracies, and especially for closed autocracies. From the viewpoint of a domestic population, autocracy remains a gamble.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabio Monteforte & Jonathan R. W. Temple, 2020. "The autocratic gamble: evidence from robust variance tests," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 363-384, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:ecogov:v:21:y:2020:i:4:d:10.1007_s10101-020-00245-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s10101-020-00245-4
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    Cited by:

    1. Millemaci, Emanuele & Monteforte, Fabio & Temple, Jonathan R. W., 2023. "Have autocrats governed for the long term?," SocArXiv w8khb, Center for Open Science.
    2. Raul Caruso & Anna Balestra, 2022. "Should education and military expenditures be combined for government economic policy?," Economics of Peace and Security Journal, EPS Publishing, vol. 17(1), pages 37-54, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Democracy; Autocracy; Economic growth; Robust variance tests;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth

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