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Prolonged Siberian heat of 2020 almost impossible without human influence

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew Ciavarella

    (Met Office Hadley Centre)

  • Daniel Cotterill

    (Met Office Hadley Centre)

  • Peter Stott

    (Met Office Hadley Centre)

  • Sarah Kew

    (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI))

  • Sjoukje Philip

    (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI))

  • Geert Jan Oldenborgh

    (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI))

  • Amalie Skålevåg

    (Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD))

  • Philip Lorenz

    (Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD))

  • Yoann Robin

    (Météo France)

  • Friederike Otto

    (University of Oxford)

  • Mathias Hauser

    (ETH Zürich)

  • Sonia I. Seneviratne

    (ETH Zürich)

  • Flavio Lehner

    (ETH Zürich)

  • Olga Zolina

    (IGE/UGA
    P.P.Shirshov Institute of Oceanology)

Abstract

Over the first half of 2020, Siberia experienced the warmest period from January to June since records began and on the 20th of June the weather station at Verkhoyansk reported 38 °C, the highest daily maximum temperature recorded north of the Arctic Circle. We present a multi-model, multi-method analysis on how anthropogenic climate change affected the probability of these events occurring using both observational datasets and a large collection of climate models, including state-of-the-art higher-resolution simulations designed for attribution and many from the latest generation of coupled ocean-atmosphere models, CMIP6. Conscious that the impacts of heatwaves can span large differences in spatial and temporal scales, we focus on two measures of the extreme Siberian heat of 2020: January to June mean temperatures over a large Siberian region and maximum daily temperatures in the vicinity of the town of Verkhoyansk. We show that human-induced climate change has dramatically increased the probability of occurrence and magnitude of extremes in both of these (with lower confidence for the probability for Verkhoyansk) and that without human influence the temperatures widely experienced in Siberia in the first half of 2020 would have been practically impossible.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Ciavarella & Daniel Cotterill & Peter Stott & Sarah Kew & Sjoukje Philip & Geert Jan Oldenborgh & Amalie Skålevåg & Philip Lorenz & Yoann Robin & Friederike Otto & Mathias Hauser & Sonia I. Sen, 2021. "Prolonged Siberian heat of 2020 almost impossible without human influence," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 1-18, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:166:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-021-03052-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03052-w
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Claudia Tebaldi & Julie Arblaster, 2014. "Pattern scaling: Its strengths and limitations, and an update on the latest model simulations," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 459-471, February.
    2. Luke J. Harrington & Friederike E. L. Otto, 2020. "Reconciling theory with the reality of African heatwaves," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(9), pages 796-798, September.
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    Cited by:

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    4. Vikki Thompson & Dann Mitchell & Gabriele C. Hegerl & Matthew Collins & Nicholas J. Leach & Julia M. Slingo, 2023. "The most at-risk regions in the world for high-impact heatwaves," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-8, December.
    5. Kai Kornhuber & Corey Lesk & Carl F. Schleussner & Jonas Jägermeyr & Peter Pfleiderer & Radley M. Horton, 2023. "Risks of synchronized low yields are underestimated in climate and crop model projections," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    6. Sihan Li & Friederike E. L. Otto, 2022. "The role of human-induced climate change in heavy rainfall events such as the one associated with Typhoon Hagibis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(1), pages 1-19, May.
    7. Vera Kuklina & Oleg Sizov & Elena Rasputina & Irina Bilichenko & Natalia Krasnoshtanova & Viktor Bogdanov & Andrey N. Petrov, 2022. "Fires on Ice: Emerging Permafrost Peatlands Fire Regimes in Russia’s Subarctic Taiga," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-18, February.

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