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The role of human-induced climate change in heavy rainfall events such as the one associated with Typhoon Hagibis

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  • Sihan Li

    (University of Oxford)

  • Friederike E. L. Otto

    (Imperial College London)

Abstract

Around October 12, 2019, torrential rainfall from Typhoon Hagibis caused large-scale flooding in a large area around the metropole region of Tokyo leading to large-scale destruction including losses of lives, livelihoods, and economic losses of well over $10 bn US dollars. In this paper we use a multi-method probabilistic event attribution framework to assess the role of human-induced climate change in the heavy rainfall event responsible for a large proportion of the damages. Combining different observational datasets and various climate model simulations, we find an increase in the likelihood of such an event to occur of 15–150%. We use this assessment and the calculated fraction of attributable risk (FAR) to further estimate the economic costs attributable to anthropogenic climate change based on the insured economic losses. Our conservative estimate is that ~$4bn of the damages due to the extreme heavy rainfall associated with Typhoon Hagibis are due to human-induced climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Sihan Li & Friederike E. L. Otto, 2022. "The role of human-induced climate change in heavy rainfall events such as the one associated with Typhoon Hagibis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(1), pages 1-19, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:172:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-022-03344-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-022-03344-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andrew Ciavarella & Daniel Cotterill & Peter Stott & Sarah Kew & Sjoukje Philip & Geert Jan Oldenborgh & Amalie Skålevåg & Philip Lorenz & Yoann Robin & Friederike Otto & Mathias Hauser & Sonia I. Sen, 2021. "Prolonged Siberian heat of 2020 almost impossible without human influence," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 1-18, May.
    2. David J. Frame & Michael F. Wehner & Ilan Noy & Suzanne M. Rosier, 2020. "The economic costs of Hurricane Harvey attributable to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 160(2), pages 271-281, May.
    3. Noy, Ilan & duPont IV, William, 2016. "The long-term consequences of natural disasters — A summary of the literature," Working Paper Series 4981, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    4. Geert Jan Oldenborgh & Karin Wiel & Sarah Kew & Sjoukje Philip & Friederike Otto & Robert Vautard & Andrew King & Fraser Lott & Julie Arrighi & Roop Singh & Maarten Aalst, 2021. "Pathways and pitfalls in extreme event attribution," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 1-27, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Patrick T. Brown, 2023. "When the fraction of attributable risk does not inform the impact associated with anthropogenic climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(8), pages 1-11, August.
    2. Apurba Roy & Ilan Noy, 2023. "Impact of extratropical cyclones, floods, and wildfires on firms’ financial performance in New Zealand," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 25(4), pages 493-574, October.
    3. Paola A. Arias & Juan Antonio Rivera & Anna A. Sörensson & Mariam Zachariah & Clair Barnes & Sjoukje Philip & Sarah Kew & Robert Vautard & Gerbrand Koren & Izidine Pinto & Maja Vahlberg & Roop Singh &, 2024. "Interplay between climate change and climate variability: the 2022 drought in Central South America," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(1), pages 1-22, January.
    4. Jordis S. Tradowsky & Sjoukje Y. Philip & Frank Kreienkamp & Sarah F. Kew & Philip Lorenz & Julie Arrighi & Thomas Bettmann & Steven Caluwaerts & Steven C. Chan & Lesley De Cruz & Hylke de Vries & Nor, 2023. "Attribution of the heavy rainfall events leading to severe flooding in Western Europe during July 2021," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(7), pages 1-38, July.

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