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Projected robust shift of climate zones over West Africa in response to anthropogenic climate change for the late 21st century

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  • Mouhamadou Sylla
  • Nellie Elguindi
  • Filippo Giorgi
  • Dominik Wisser

Abstract

The response of West African climate zones to anthropogenic climate change during the late 21st century is investigated using the revised Thornthwaite climate classification applied to ensembles of CMIP5, CORDEX, and higher-resolution RegCM4 experiments (HIRES). The ensembles reproduce fairly well the observed climate zones, although with some notable discrepancies. CORDEX and HIRES provide realistic fine-scale information which enhances that from the coarser-scale CMIP5, especially in the Gulf of Guinea encompassing marked landcover and topography gradients. The late 21st century projections reveal an extension of torrid climates throughout West Africa. In addition, the Sahel, predominantly semi-arid in present-day conditions, is projected to face moderately persistent future arid climate. Similarly, the Gulf of Guinea shows a tendency in the future to experience highly seasonal semi-arid conditions. Finally, wet and moist regions with an extreme seasonality around orographic zones become less extensive under future climate change. Consequently, West Africa evolves towards increasingly torrid, arid and semi-arid regimes with the recession of moist and wet zones mostly because of the temperature forcing, although precipitation can be locally an important factor. These features are common to all multimodel ensembles, a sign of robustness, with few disagreements in their areal extents, and with more pronounced changes in the higher-resolution RCM projections. Such changes point towards an increased risk of water stress for managed and unmanaged ecosystems, and thus add an element of vulnerability to future anthropogenic climate change for West African water management, ecosystem services and agricultural activities. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2016

Suggested Citation

  • Mouhamadou Sylla & Nellie Elguindi & Filippo Giorgi & Dominik Wisser, 2016. "Projected robust shift of climate zones over West Africa in response to anthropogenic climate change for the late 21st century," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(1), pages 241-253, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:134:y:2016:i:1:p:241-253
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1522-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. L. Mariotti & I. Diallo & E. Coppola & F. Giorgi, 2014. "Seasonal and intraseasonal changes of African monsoon climates in 21st century CORDEX projections," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(1), pages 53-65, July.
    2. N. Elguindi & A. Grundstein & S. Bernardes & U. Turuncoglu & J. Feddema, 2014. "Assessment of CMIP5 global model simulations and climate change projections for the 21 st century using a modified Thornthwaite climate classification," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(4), pages 523-538, February.
    3. Scott R. Loarie & Philip B. Duffy & Healy Hamilton & Gregory P. Asner & Christopher B. Field & David D. Ackerly, 2009. "The velocity of climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 462(7276), pages 1052-1055, December.
    4. Andreas Haensler & Fahad Saeed & Daniela Jacob, 2013. "Assessing the robustness of projected precipitation changes over central Africa on the basis of a multitude of global and regional climate projections," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 121(2), pages 349-363, November.
    5. Mouhamadou Bamba Sylla & Ismaila Diallo & Jeremy Pal, 2013. "West African Monsoon in State-of-the-Science Regional Climate Models," Chapters, in: Aondover Tarhule (ed.), Climate Variability - Regional and Thematic Patterns, IntechOpen.
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    3. Sawadogo, Windmanagda & Abiodun, Babatunde J. & Okogbue, Emmanuel C., 2020. "Impacts of global warming on photovoltaic power generation over West Africa," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 263-277.
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    6. O. U. Charlene Gaba & Yae Ulrich Gaba & Bernd Diekkrüger, 2022. "A Flashforward to Today Made in the Past: Evaluating 25-Year-Old Projections of Precipitation and Temperature over West Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-28, September.

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