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Rainfall Projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 in the Volta River Basin: Implications on Achieving Sustainable Development

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  • Sam-Quarcoo Dotse

    (School of Sustainable Development, University of Environment and Sustainable Development, Somanya 00233, Ghana)

  • Isaac Larbi

    (School of Sustainable Development, University of Environment and Sustainable Development, Somanya 00233, Ghana)

  • Andrew Manoba Limantol

    (School of Sustainable Development, University of Environment and Sustainable Development, Somanya 00233, Ghana)

  • Peter Asare-Nuamah

    (School of Sustainable Development, University of Environment and Sustainable Development, Somanya 00233, Ghana)

  • Louis Kusi Frimpong

    (School of Sustainable Development, University of Environment and Sustainable Development, Somanya 00233, Ghana)

  • Abdul-Rauf Malimanga Alhassan

    (School of Sustainable Development, University of Environment and Sustainable Development, Somanya 00233, Ghana)

  • Solomon Sarpong

    (School of Natural and Environmental Science, University of Environment and Sustainable Development, Somanya 00233, Ghana)

  • Emmanuel Angmor

    (School of Sustainable Development, University of Environment and Sustainable Development, Somanya 00233, Ghana)

  • Angela Kyerewaa Ayisi-Addo

    (School of Sustainable Development, University of Environment and Sustainable Development, Somanya 00233, Ghana)

Abstract

Climate change has become a global issue, not only because it affects the intensity and frequency of rainfall but also because it impacts the economic development of regions whose economies heavily rely on rainfall, such as the West African region. Hence, the need for this study, which is aimed at understanding how rainfall may change in the future over the Sahel, Savannah, and coastal zones of the Volta River Basin (VRB). The trends and changes in rainfall between 2021–2050 and 1985–2014 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) scenarios were analyzed after evaluating the performance of three climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) using Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) as observation. The results show, in general, a relatively high correlation and low spatial biases for rainfall (r > 0.91, −20% < Pbias < 20%) over the entire Volta Basin for the models’ ensemble mean. An increasing trend and projected increase in annual rainfall under the SSP2-4.5 scenario is 6.0% (Sahel), 7.3% (Savannah), and 2.6% (VRB), but a decrease of 1.1% in the coastal zone. Similarly, under SSP5-8.5, the annual rainfall is projected to increase by 32.5% (Sahel), +22.8% (Savannah), 23.0% (coastal), and 24.9% (VRB), with the increase being more pronounced under SSP5-8.5 compared to the SSP2-4.5 scenario. The findings of the study would be useful for planning and designing climate change adaptation measures to achieve sustainable development at the VRB.

Suggested Citation

  • Sam-Quarcoo Dotse & Isaac Larbi & Andrew Manoba Limantol & Peter Asare-Nuamah & Louis Kusi Frimpong & Abdul-Rauf Malimanga Alhassan & Solomon Sarpong & Emmanuel Angmor & Angela Kyerewaa Ayisi-Addo, 2023. "Rainfall Projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 in the Volta River Basin: Implications on Achieving Sustainable Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-17, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:2:p:1472-:d:1033788
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