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Forecasting extreme seasonal tourism demand: the case of Rishiri Island in Japan

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  • Niematallah Elamin

    (Osaka University)

  • Mototsugu Fukushige

    (Osaka University)

Abstract

The existence of extreme seasonal demand, such that off-season monthly demand is close to zero, means that tourism operators are forced to be more efficient in the high season. It also means that it is important to construct a forecast model for the high-season demand. In forecasting tourism demand for a location such as a cold-water island, we face such extreme seasonality. Rishiri Island in Japan is a typical example. We construct several forecasting models and evaluate their forecasting performance. Forecasts from the SARIMA model with full-season data and without a trend term perform best in postsample evaluation.

Suggested Citation

  • Niematallah Elamin & Mototsugu Fukushige, 2018. "Forecasting extreme seasonal tourism demand: the case of Rishiri Island in Japan," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 279-296, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:apjors:v:2:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s41685-017-0048-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s41685-017-0048-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tourism forecasting; Seasonal time series; SARIMA model; State-space modeling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Z33 - Other Special Topics - - Tourism Economics - - - Marketing and Finance
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • R29 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Other

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