IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/annopr/v325y2023i1d10.1007_s10479-021-04280-0.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Result-based talent identification in road cycling: discovering the next Eddy Merckx

Author

Listed:
  • David Van Bulck

    (Ghent University)

  • Arthur Vande Weghe

    (Ghent University)

  • Dries Goossens

    (Ghent University)

Abstract

In various sports large amounts of data are nowadays collected and analyzed to help scouts with identifying talented young athletes. In contrast, the literature on result-based talent identification in road cycling is remarkably scarce. The purpose of this paper is to provide insight into the possibilities of the use of publicly available data to discover new talented Under-23 (U23) riders via statistical learning methods (linear regression and random forest techniques). At the same time, we try to find out the main determinants of success for U23 riders in their first years of professional cycling. We collect results for more than 25000 road cycling races from 2007–2018 and consider more than 2500 riders from over 80 countries. We use the data from 2007 to 2017 to train and validate our models, and use the data from 2018 to predict how well U23 riders will perform in their first three elite years. Our results reveal that past U23 race results appear to be important predictors of future cycling performance.

Suggested Citation

  • David Van Bulck & Arthur Vande Weghe & Dries Goossens, 2023. "Result-based talent identification in road cycling: discovering the next Eddy Merckx," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 325(1), pages 539-556, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:325:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-021-04280-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s10479-021-04280-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10479-021-04280-0
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10479-021-04280-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Boon, Bart H. & Sierksma, Gerard, 2003. "Team formation: Matching quality supply and quality demand," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 148(2), pages 277-292, July.
    2. Laurens Cherchye & Frederic Vermeulen, 2006. "Robust Rankings of Multidimensional Performances," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 7(4), pages 359-373, November.
    3. Benjamin Cabaud & Nicolas Scelles & Aurélien François & Stephen Morrow, 2016. "Modeling Performances and Competitive Balance in Professional Road Cycling," Sports Economics, Management, and Policy, in: Daam Van Reeth & Daniel Joseph Larson (ed.), The Economics of Professional Road Cycling, edition 1, chapter 0, pages 257-283, Springer.
    4. Daam Van Reeth & Daniel Joseph Larson (ed.), 2016. "The Economics of Professional Road Cycling," Sports Economics, Management and Policy, Springer, edition 1, number 978-3-319-22312-4, September.
    5. Daam Reeth, 2016. "Globalization in Professional Road Cycling," Sports Economics, Management, and Policy, in: Daam Van Reeth & Daniel Joseph Larson (ed.), The Economics of Professional Road Cycling, edition 1, chapter 0, pages 165-205, Springer.
    6. Jean-François Mignot, 2016. "The History of Professional Road Cycling," Sports Economics, Management, and Policy, in: Daam Van Reeth & Daniel Joseph Larson (ed.), The Economics of Professional Road Cycling, edition 1, chapter 0, pages 7-31, Springer.
    7. Luca Rebeggiani, 2016. "The Organizational Structure of Professional Road Cycling," Sports Economics, Management, and Policy, in: Daam Van Reeth & Daniel Joseph Larson (ed.), The Economics of Professional Road Cycling, edition 1, chapter 0, pages 33-54, Springer.
    8. Jean-François Brocard & Daniel Joseph Larson, 2016. "Agents in Professional Road Cycling," Sports Economics, Management, and Policy, in: Daam Van Reeth & Daniel Joseph Larson (ed.), The Economics of Professional Road Cycling, edition 1, chapter 0, pages 147-163, Springer.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bram Janssens & Matthias Bogaert & Mathijs Maton, 2023. "Predicting the next Pogačar: a data analytical approach to detect young professional cycling talents," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 325(1), pages 557-588, June.
    2. Alexander Genoe & Ronald Rousseau & Sandra Rousseau, 2021. "Applying Google Trends’ Search Popularity Indicator to Professional Cycling," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 22(4), pages 459-485, May.
    3. Jan Ours & Frederic Vermeulen, 2007. "Ranking Dutch Economists," De Economist, Springer, vol. 155(4), pages 469-487, December.
    4. Peng, Zixuan & Shan, Wenxuan & Zhu, Xiaoning & Yu, Bin, 2022. "Many-to-one stable matching for taxi-sharing service with selfish players," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 255-279.
    5. Wittkowski Knut M. & Song Tingting & Anderson Kent & Daniels John E., 2008. "U-Scores for Multivariate Data in Sports," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 4(3), pages 1-24, July.
    6. Gerçek Budak & İmdat Kara & Yusuf Tansel İç & Refail Kasımbeyli, 2019. "New mathematical models for team formation of sports clubs before the match," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 27(1), pages 93-109, March.
    7. M B Wright, 2009. "50 years of OR in sport," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 60(1), pages 161-168, May.
    8. Jarvandi Ali & Sarkani Shahram & Mazzuchi Thomas, 2013. "Modeling team compatibility factors using a semi-Markov decision process: a data-driven approach to player selection in soccer," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 9(4), pages 347-366, December.
    9. Marco Diana & Tingting Song & Knut Wittkowski, 2009. "Studying travel-related individual assessments and desires by combining hierarchically structured ordinal variables," Transportation, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 187-206, March.
    10. Geys, Benny & Moesen, Wim, 2008. "Measuring local government technical (in)efficiency: An application and comparison of FDH, DEA and econometric approaches," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Market Processes and Governance SP II 2008-21, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    11. Woodruff, Christopher J., 2010. "Multivariate optimisation for procurement of emergency services equipment - Teams of the best or the best of teams?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 205(1), pages 186-194, August.
    12. Sahoo, Biresh & Singh, Ramadhar & Mishra, Bineet & Sankaran, Krithiga, 2015. "Research Productivity in Management Schools of India: A Directional Benefit-of-Doubt Model Analysis," MPRA Paper 67046, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Scott Beaulier & Robert Elder, 2011. "Using ‘‘Dominetrics’’ to Impose Greater Discipline on Performance Rankings," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 12(1), pages 55-80, February.
    14. Rhaí André Arriel & Hiago L. R. Souza & Jeffer Eidi Sasaki & Moacir Marocolo, 2022. "Current Perspectives of Cross-Country Mountain Biking: Physiological and Mechanical Aspects, Evolution of Bikes, Accidents and Injuries," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-23, October.
    15. Nihal Berktaş & Hande Yaman, 2021. "A Branch-and-Bound Algorithm for Team Formation on Social Networks," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 33(3), pages 1162-1176, July.
    16. Peng, Zixuan & Shan, Wenxuan & Guan, Feng & Yu, Bin, 2016. "Stable vessel-cargo matching in dry bulk shipping market with price game mechanism," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 76-94.
    17. Vineet M. Payyappalli & Jun Zhuang, 2019. "A data-driven integer programming model for soccer clubs’ decision making on player transfers," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 39(4), pages 466-481, December.
    18. Pantuso Giovanni, 2017. "The Football Team Composition Problem: a Stochastic Programming approach," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 13(3), pages 113-129, September.
    19. Tavana, Madjid & Azizi, Farshad & Azizi, Farzad & Behzadian, Majid, 2013. "A fuzzy inference system with application to player selection and team formation in multi-player sports," Sport Management Review, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 97-110.
    20. Dibyojyoti Bhattacharjee & Hemanta Saikia, 2016. "An objective approach of balanced cricket team selection using binary integer programming method," OPSEARCH, Springer;Operational Research Society of India, vol. 53(2), pages 225-247, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:325:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-021-04280-0. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.