IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/alstar/v106y2022i2d10.1007_s10182-021-00426-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Small area estimation of socioeconomic indicators for sampled and unsampled domains

Author

Listed:
  • Jan Pablo Burgard

    (Trier University)

  • Domingo Morales

    (Operations Research Center, University Miguel Hernández de Elche)

  • Anna-Lena Wölwer

    (Trier University)

Abstract

Socioeconomic indicators play a crucial role in monitoring political actions over time and across regions. Income-based indicators such as the median income of sub-populations can provide information on the impact of measures, e.g., on poverty reduction. Regional information is usually published on an aggregated level. Due to small sample sizes, these regional aggregates are often associated with large standard errors or are missing if the region is unsampled or the estimate is simply not published. For example, if the median income of Hispanic or Latino Americans from the American Community Survey is of interest, some county-year combinations are not available. Therefore, a comparison of different counties or time-points is partly not possible. We propose a new predictor based on small area estimation techniques for aggregated data and bivariate modeling. This predictor provides empirical best predictions for the partially unavailable county-year combinations. We provide an analytical approximation to the mean squared error. The theoretical findings are backed up by a large-scale simulation study. Finally, we return to the problem of estimating the county-year estimates for the median income of Hispanic or Latino Americans and externally validate the estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Pablo Burgard & Domingo Morales & Anna-Lena Wölwer, 2022. "Small area estimation of socioeconomic indicators for sampled and unsampled domains," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 106(2), pages 287-314, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:alstar:v:106:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1007_s10182-021-00426-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s10182-021-00426-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10182-021-00426-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10182-021-00426-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fernando A. S. Moura & André Felipe Neves & Denise Britz do N. Silva, 2017. "Small area models for skewed Brazilian business survey data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 180(4), pages 1039-1055, October.
    2. Marhuenda, Yolanda & Molina, Isabel & Morales, Domingo, 2013. "Small area estimation with spatio-temporal Fay–Herriot models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 308-325.
    3. Lynn M. R. Ybarra & Sharon L. Lohr, 2008. "Small area estimation when auxiliary information is measured with error," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 95(4), pages 919-931.
    4. Jan Pablo Burgard & Joscha Krause & Dennis Kreber, 2019. "Regularized Area-level Modelling for Robust Small Area Estimation in the Presence of Unknown Covariate Measurement Errors," Research Papers in Economics 2019-04, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    5. Roberto Benavent & Domingo Morales, 2021. "Small area estimation under a temporal bivariate area-level linear mixed model with independent time effects," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 30(1), pages 195-222, March.
    6. Azka Ubaidillah & Khairil Anwar Notodiputro & Anang Kurnia & I. Wayan Mangku, 2019. "Multivariate Fay-Herriot models for small area estimation with application to household consumption per capita expenditure in Indonesia," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(15), pages 2845-2861, November.
    7. Yoshimori, Masayo & Lahiri, Partha, 2014. "A new adjusted maximum likelihood method for the Fay–Herriot small area model," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 281-294.
    8. Li, Huilin & Lahiri, P., 2010. "An adjusted maximum likelihood method for solving small area estimation problems," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 101(4), pages 882-892, April.
    9. González-Manteiga, W. & Lombardi­a, M.J. & Molina, I. & Morales, D. & Santamari­a, L., 2008. "Analytic and bootstrap approximations of prediction errors under a multivariate Fay-Herriot model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(12), pages 5242-5252, August.
    10. Serena Arima & William R. Bell & Gauri S. Datta & Carolina Franco & Brunero Liseo, 2017. "Multivariate Fay–Herriot Bayesian estimation of small area means under functional measurement error," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 180(4), pages 1191-1209, October.
    11. Esteban, M.D. & Morales, D. & Pérez, A. & Santamaría, L., 2012. "Small area estimation of poverty proportions under area-level time models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(10), pages 2840-2855.
    12. Monica Pratesi & Nicola Salvati, 2008. "Small area estimation: the EBLUP estimator based on spatially correlated random area effects," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 17(1), pages 113-141, February.
    13. Charlotte Articus & Hanna Brenzel & Ralf Münnich, 2020. "Analysing local-level rental markets based on the German Mikrozensus," Research Papers in Economics 2020-09, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    14. Charlotte Articus & Jan Pablo Burgard, 2014. "A Finite Mixture Fay Herriot-type model for estimating regional rental prices in Germany," Research Papers in Economics 2014-14, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    15. Timo Schmid & Ralf Münnich, 2014. "Spatial robust small area estimation," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 653-670, August.
    16. Claudia Baldermann & Nicola Salvati & Timo Schmid, 2018. "Robust Small Area Estimation under Spatial Non†stationarity," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 86(1), pages 136-159, April.
    17. Nicholas T. Longford, 2004. "Missing data and small area estimation in the UK Labour Force Survey," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 167(2), pages 341-373, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jan Pablo Burgard & Joscha Krause & Domingo Morales, 2022. "A measurement error Rao–Yu model for regional prevalence estimation over time using uncertain data obtained from dependent survey estimates," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 31(1), pages 204-234, March.
    2. Benavent, Roberto & Morales, Domingo, 2016. "Multivariate Fay–Herriot models for small area estimation," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 372-390.
    3. Joscha Krause & Jan Pablo Burgard & Domingo Morales, 2022. "Robust prediction of domain compositions from uncertain data using isometric logratio transformations in a penalized multivariate Fay–Herriot model," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 76(1), pages 65-96, February.
    4. Szymkowiak Marcin & Młodak Andrzej & Wawrowski Łukasz, 2017. "Mapping Poverty at the Level of Subregions in Poland Using Indirect Estimation," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 18(4), pages 609-635, December.
    5. Shonosuke Sugasawa & Tatsuya Kubokawa & J. N. K. Rao, 2018. "Small area estimation via unmatched sampling and linking models," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 27(2), pages 407-427, June.
    6. Jan Pablo Burgard & María Dolores Esteban & Domingo Morales & Agustín Pérez, 2020. "A Fay–Herriot model when auxiliary variables are measured with error," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 29(1), pages 166-195, March.
    7. Marcin Szymkowiak & Andrzej Młodak & Łukasz Wawrowski, 2017. "Mapping Poverty At The Level Of Subregions In Poland Using Indirect Estimation," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 18(4), pages 609-635, December.
    8. Jan Pablo Burgard & María Dolores Esteban & Domingo Morales & Agustín Pérez, 2021. "Small area estimation under a measurement error bivariate Fay–Herriot model," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 30(1), pages 79-108, March.
    9. María Dolores Esteban & María José Lombardía & Esther López-Vizcaíno & Domingo Morales & Agustín Pérez, 2023. "Small area estimation of average compositions under multivariate nested error regression models," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 32(2), pages 651-676, June.
    10. J. N. K. Rao, 2015. "Inferential issues in model-based small area estimation: some new developments," Statistics in Transition new series, Główny Urząd Statystyczny (Polska), vol. 16(4), pages 491-510, December.
    11. María Dolores Esteban & María José Lombardía & Esther López-Vizcaíno & Domingo Morales & Agustín Pérez, 2020. "Small area estimation of proportions under area-level compositional mixed models," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 29(3), pages 793-818, September.
    12. Tomasz Ża̧dło, 2015. "On longitudinal moving average model for prediction of subpopulation total," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 749-771, August.
    13. Boubeta, Miguel & Lombardía, María José & Morales, Domingo, 2017. "Poisson mixed models for studying the poverty in small areas," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 32-47.
    14. J. N. K. Rao, 2015. "Inferential Issues In Model-Based Small Area Estimation: Some New Developments," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 491-510, December.
    15. Roberto Benavent & Domingo Morales, 2021. "Small area estimation under a temporal bivariate area-level linear mixed model with independent time effects," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 30(1), pages 195-222, March.
    16. Sugasawa, Shonosuke & Kubokawa, Tatsuya, 2017. "Transforming response values in small area prediction," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 47-60.
    17. Marhuenda, Yolanda & Molina, Isabel & Morales, Domingo, 2013. "Small area estimation with spatio-temporal Fay–Herriot models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 308-325.
    18. Jan Pablo Burgard & Joscha Krause & Dennis Kreber, 2019. "Regularized Area-level Modelling for Robust Small Area Estimation in the Presence of Unknown Covariate Measurement Errors," Research Papers in Economics 2019-04, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    19. Kreutzmann, Ann-Kristin & Marek, Philipp & Salvati, Nicola & Schmid, Timo, 2019. "Estimating regional wealth in Germany: How different are East and West really?," Discussion Papers 35/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    20. Kordos Jan, 2016. "Development of Small Area Estimation in Official Statistics," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 17(1), pages 105-132, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:alstar:v:106:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1007_s10182-021-00426-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.