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Changing a Decision Taken under Uncertainty: The Case of the Criminal's Location Choice

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  • Joseph Deutsch

    (Department of Economics, Bar-Ilan University, 52900 Ramat-Gan, Israel, jdeutsch@ashur.cc.biu.ac.il.)

  • Gil S. Epstein

    (Department of Economics, Bar-llan University, 52900 Ramat-Gan, Israel, epsteig@ashur.cc.biu.ac.il., Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), London, England, UK)

Abstract

In this paper we analyse the allocation of criminal activity over the metropolitan area over time. At each period of time, the criminal must choose in which area to commit his/her next offence. The criminal's expectations regarding his/her utility as a function of the probability to be apprehended are updated in the process of work. We find general conditions, under which the criminal determines his optimal location strategy. A direct policy implication of our model suggests that spillover effect is the result of changing police activities.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph Deutsch & Gil S. Epstein, 1998. "Changing a Decision Taken under Uncertainty: The Case of the Criminal's Location Choice," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 35(8), pages 1335-1343, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:urbstu:v:35:y:1998:i:8:p:1335-1343
    DOI: 10.1080/0042098984385
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    3. Pope, Carl E., 1980. "Patterns in burglary: An empirical examination of offense and offender characteristics," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 39-51.
    4. Deutsch, Joseph & Hakim, Simon & Weinblatt, J., 1987. "A micro model of the criminal's location choice," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 198-208, September.
    5. Epstein, Gil S., 1996. "The extraction of natural resources from two sites under uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 309-313, June.
    6. Joseph Deutsch & Simon Hakim & J. Weinblatt, 1984. "Interjurisdictional Criminal Mobility: A Theoretical Perspective," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 21(4), pages 451-458, November.
    7. Banks, Jeffrey S & Sundaram, Rangarajan K, 1992. "Denumerable-Armed Bandits," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(5), pages 1071-1096, September.
    8. Block, M K & Heineke, J M, 1975. "A Labor Theoretic Analysis of the Criminal Choice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(3), pages 314-325, June.
    9. Simon Hakim & Arie Ovadia & Eli Sagi & J. Weinblatt, 1979. "Interjurisdictional Spillover of Crime and Police Expenditure," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 54(2), pages 200-212.
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