IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/toueco/v21y2015i2p325-339.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Restaurant Consumption as an Economic Indicator

Author

Listed:
  • Aleksandar M. Velkoski

    (Marketing Analytics & Research, Rewards Network, Inc, 2 N. Riverside Plaza, Suite 200, Chicago, IL 60606, USA)

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between restaurant consumption and aggregate macroeconomic activity in the USA. Using a set of 2005 chained US dollar quarterly same store sales data for restaurant consumption from Q1 2007 through Q1 2012, it empirically examines whether restaurant consumption is an aggregate macroeconomic indicator. Two categories of restaurant consumption are examined: non-incentivized spend and incentivized spend. Aggregate macroeconomic activity is measured by gross domestic product. Non-incentivized spend is found to be a procyclical coincident indicator of aggregate macroeconomic activity in the USA. Coincident indicators are comprehensive measures of economic performance that help to confirm whether a nation is prosperous or depressed. The study found no relationship between incentivized spend and aggregate macroeconomic activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Aleksandar M. Velkoski, 2015. "Restaurant Consumption as an Economic Indicator," Tourism Economics, , vol. 21(2), pages 325-339, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:21:y:2015:i:2:p:325-339
    DOI: 10.5367/te.2013.0349
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.5367/te.2013.0349
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.5367/te.2013.0349?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Campbell, Sean D. & Diebold, Francis X., 2009. "Stock Returns and Expected Business Conditions: Half a Century of Direct Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(2), pages 266-278.
    2. Waud, Roger N, 1975. "Net Outlay Uncertainty and Liquidity Preference as Behavior toward Risk," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 7(4), pages 499-506, November.
    3. Scott E. Harrington, 2009. "The Financial Crisis, Systemic Risk, and the Future of Insurance Regulation," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 76(4), pages 785-819, December.
    4. Tsiang, S C, 1969. "The Precautionary Demand for Money: An Inventory Theoretical Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(1), pages 99-117, Jan./Feb..
    5. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "How did leading indicator forecasts perform during the 2001 recession?," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 89(Sum), pages 71-90.
    6. Saul H. Hymans, 1973. "On the Use of Leading Indicators to Predict Cyclical Turning Points," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(2), pages 339-384.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sergey V. Smirnov & Daria A. Avdeeva, 2016. "Wishful Bias in Predicting Us Recessions: Indirect Evidence," HSE Working papers WP BRP 135/EC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    2. Chang, Carolyn W. & Li, Xiaodan & Lin, Edward M.H. & Yu, Min-Teh, 2018. "Systemic risk, interconnectedness, and non-core activities in Taiwan insurance industry," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 273-284.
    3. Daniela Laas & Caroline Franziska Siegel, 2017. "Basel III Versus Solvency II: An Analysis of Regulatory Consistency Under the New Capital Standards," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 84(4), pages 1231-1267, December.
    4. Clements, Michael P. & Beatriz Galvao, Ana, 2010. "Real-time Forecasting of Inflation and Output Growth in the Presence of Data Revisions," Economic Research Papers 270771, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    5. Kanno, Masayasu, 2020. "Interconnectedness and systemic risk in the US CDS market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    6. Kirby, Chris, 2019. "The value premium and expected business conditions," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 360-366.
    7. Turan G. Bali & Hao Zhou, 2011. "Risk, uncertainty, and expected returns," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-45, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Foroni, Claudia & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Schumacher, Christian, 2011. "U-MIDAS: MIDAS regressions with unrestricted lag polynomials," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,35, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Jared F. Egginton & James I. Hilliard & Andre P. Liebenberg & Ivonne A. Liebenberg, 2010. "What Effect Did AIG's Bailout, and the Preceding Events, Have on Its Competitors?," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 13(2), pages 225-249, September.
    10. Bruno Biais & Florian Heider & Marie Hoerova, 2021. "Variation Margins, Fire Sales, and Information-constrained Optimality [Leverage, Moral Hazard, and Liquidity]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(6), pages 2654-2686.
    11. Rolando F. Peláez, 2015. "A recession‐and‐state forecasting model," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 81(4), pages 1025-1039, April.
    12. Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvão, 2007. "Macroeconomic Forecasting with Mixed Frequency Data: Forecasting US Output Growth," Working Papers 616, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    13. Drechsel, Katja & Scheufele, Rolf, 2010. "Should We Trust in Leading Indicators? Evidence from the Recent Recession," IWH Discussion Papers 10/2010, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    14. Evan F. Koenig & Kenneth M. Emery, 1994. "Why The Composite Index Of Leading Indicators Does Not Lead," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(1), pages 52-66, January.
    15. Song, Wonho & Park, Sung Y. & Ryu, Doojin, 2018. "Dynamic conditional relationships between developed and emerging markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 507(C), pages 534-543.
    16. Arjan Berkelaar & Roy Kouwenberg, 2011. "A Liability-Relative Drawdown Approach to Pension Asset Liability Management," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Gautam Mitra & Katharina Schwaiger (ed.), Asset and Liability Management Handbook, chapter 14, pages 352-382, Palgrave Macmillan.
    17. Berdin, Elia & Sottocornola, Matteo, 2015. "Insurance activities and systemic risk," SAFE Working Paper Series 121, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    18. Martin Eling & David Antonius Pankoke, 2016. "Systemic Risk in the Insurance Sector: A Review and Directions for Future Research," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 19(2), pages 249-284, September.
    19. Alberto Dreassi & Stefano Miani & Andrea Paltrinieri & Alex Sclip, 2018. "Bank-Insurance Risk Spillovers: Evidence from Europe," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 43(1), pages 72-96, January.
    20. Domenico Di Gangi & Fabrizio Lillo & Davide Pirino, 2015. "Assessing systemic risk due to fire sales spillover through maximum entropy network reconstruction," Papers 1509.00607, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2018.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:21:y:2015:i:2:p:325-339. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.