IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/somere/v14y1985i1p3-30.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Failure Time Models for Thinned Crime Commission Data

Author

Listed:
  • ROBERT T. HOLDEN

    (Indiana University)

Abstract

In studying the effects of correctional treatments and other variables on criminal behavior, researchers often use time to arrest, instead of time until a crime is committed, as the criterion variable. We examine conditions under which inferences can validly be made from the effects of predictors on the time to the first arrest to their effects on the time to the first crime committed. A nonhomogeneous Poisson process and a renewal process are considered as possible models for crime commission. An individual's crimes are assumed to result in arrest independently, with some fixed probability less than one. Multiplicative regression models for the time to the first crime are invariant with respect to thinning for either a Poisson or a renewal process. Proportional hazards models for the time to the first crime are invariant under thinning for a Poisson process but not for a general renewal process. Some limit results for thinned point processes yield an interpretation of proportional hazard effects as multiplicative effects on the expected number of crimes committed.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert T. Holden, 1985. "Failure Time Models for Thinned Crime Commission Data," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 14(1), pages 3-30, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:somere:v:14:y:1985:i:1:p:3-30
    DOI: 10.1177/0049124185014001001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0049124185014001001
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0049124185014001001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephen Stollmack & Carl M. Harris, 1974. "Failure-Rate Analysis Applied to Recidivism Data," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 22(6), pages 1192-1205, December.
    2. Avi-Itzhak, Benjamin & Shinnar, Reuel, 1973. "Quantitative models in crime control," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 185-217.
    3. Ann D. Witte & Peter Schmidt, 1977. "An Analysis of Recidivism, Using the Truncated Lognormal Distribution," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 26(3), pages 302-311, November.
    4. P. A. W Lewis & G. S. Shedler, 1979. "Simulation of nonhomogeneous poisson processes by thinning," Naval Research Logistics Quarterly, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(3), pages 403-413, September.
    5. Belkin, Jacob & Blumstein, Alfred & Glass, William, 1973. "Recidivism as a feedback process: An analytical model and empirical validation," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 7-26, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Peter Schmidt & Ann D. Witte, 1980. "Evaluating Correctional Programs," Evaluation Review, , vol. 4(5), pages 585-600, October.
    2. Howard S. Bloom, 1979. "Evaluating Human Service and Correctional Programs By Modeling the Timing of Recidivism," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 8(2), pages 179-208, November.
    3. Gerald R. Wheeler & Rodney V. Hissong, 1988. "A Survival Time Analysis of Criminal Sanctions for Misdemeanor Offenders," Evaluation Review, , vol. 12(5), pages 510-527, October.
    4. Jie Chen & Joseph Glaz, 2016. "Multiple Window Scan Statistics for Two Dimensional Poisson Processes," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 967-977, December.
    5. Giesecke, K. & Schwenkler, G., 2019. "Simulated likelihood estimators for discretely observed jump–diffusions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 213(2), pages 297-320.
    6. Dominik Wodarz & Natalia L Komarova, 2013. "Dependence of the Firearm-Related Homicide Rate on Gun Availability: A Mathematical Analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(7), pages 1-13, July.
    7. Mohammadi, M. & Rezakhah, S. & Modarresi, N., 2020. "Semi-Lévy driven continuous-time GARCH process," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 557(C).
    8. Canyakmaz, Caner & Özekici, Süleyman & Karaesmen, Fikri, 2019. "An inventory model where customer demand is dependent on a stochastic price process," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 139-152.
    9. Xin-Yu Tian & Xincheng Shi & Cheng Peng & Xiao-Jian Yi, 2021. "A Reliability Growth Process Model with Time-Varying Covariates and Its Application," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-15, April.
    10. Cavaliere, Giuseppe & Lu, Ye & Rahbek, Anders & Stærk-Østergaard, Jacob, 2023. "Bootstrap inference for Hawkes and general point processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(1), pages 133-165.
    11. Korporaal, R. & Ridder, A.A.N. & Kloprogge, P. & Dekker, R., 1999. "Capacity planning of prisons in the Netherlands," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9909-/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    12. Julio A. Crego, 2017. "Short Selling Ban and Intraday Dynamics," Working Papers wp2018_1715, CEMFI.
    13. Swishchuk, Anatoliy & Zagst, Rudi & Zeller, Gabriela, 2021. "Hawkes processes in insurance: Risk model, application to empirical data and optimal investment," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(PA), pages 107-124.
    14. Lu Shaochuan, 2023. "Scalable Bayesian Multiple Changepoint Detection via Auxiliary Uniformisation," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 91(1), pages 88-113, April.
    15. Ji, Jingru & Wang, Donghua & Xu, Dinghai & Xu, Chi, 2020. "Combining a self-exciting point process with the truncated generalized Pareto distribution: An extreme risk analysis under price limits," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 52-70.
    16. Wenhui Zhao & Nicholas G. Hall & Zhixin Liu, 2020. "Project Evaluation and Selection with Task Failures," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 29(2), pages 428-446, February.
    17. Ivan Jericevich & Dharmesh Sing & Tim Gebbie, 2021. "CoinTossX: An open-source low-latency high-throughput matching engine," Papers 2102.10925, arXiv.org.
    18. Sobin Joseph & Shashi Jain, 2023. "A neural network based model for multi-dimensional nonlinear Hawkes processes," Papers 2303.03073, arXiv.org.
    19. Schmidt, Peter & Witte, Ann Dryden, 1989. "Predicting criminal recidivism using 'split population' survival time models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 141-159, January.
    20. Herman J. Bierens & Jose R. Carvalho, 2007. "Semi-nonparametric competing risks analysis of recidivism," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(5), pages 971-993.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:somere:v:14:y:1985:i:1:p:3-30. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.