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Evaluating Human Service and Correctional Programs By Modeling the Timing of Recidivism

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  • Howard S. Bloom

    (Harvard University)

Abstract

This paper develops and illustrates a new statistical model of recidivism which enables program evaluators to (1) examine short-run program impact on the postponement of recidivism, through estimates of the average time at which recidivism occurs; (2) measure long-run program impact on the prevention of recidivism, through estimates of the ultimate probability ofrecidivism and (3) help determine when individuals have been successful long enough to be considered "safe," through estimates of their conditional probability of future recidivism.

Suggested Citation

  • Howard S. Bloom, 1979. "Evaluating Human Service and Correctional Programs By Modeling the Timing of Recidivism," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 8(2), pages 179-208, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:somere:v:8:y:1979:i:2:p:179-208
    DOI: 10.1177/004912417900800204
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ann D. Witte & Peter Schmidt, 1977. "An Analysis of Recidivism, Using the Truncated Lognormal Distribution," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 26(3), pages 302-311, November.
    2. Stephen Stollmack & Carl M. Harris, 1974. "Failure-Rate Analysis Applied to Recidivism Data," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 22(6), pages 1192-1205, December.
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