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Application of the Theory of Self-Organized Criticality to the Investigation of Historical Processes

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  • Dmitry S. Zhukov
  • Valery V. Kanishchev
  • Sergey K. Lyamin

Abstract

The article demonstrates heuristic possibilities of the theory of self-organized criticality (SOC) in the investigation of historical processes. Key SOC concepts and ideas are explained. Specifically, tools that can be used for identifying pink noise, an attribute of a critical state, are described. The results of spectral analyses of historical demographic data (i.e., birth and death rates in Russian settlements in the 19th and 20th centuries) and historical market data (i.e., grain prices in regions of Russia in the 18th, 19th, and early 20th centuries) are presented. It was found that noise color in the data series differed substantially across different periods. Based on these observations, the assumption that a change in noise color can serve as an indicator of changes in historical processes was made. In some cases, this indicator can enable one to establish the time, speed, and direction of state changes in historical processes. Pink noise was discovered in the examined birth and death rate dynamics, as well as in the dynamics of prices across periods. The described methods have the potential to be used beyond the limits of the presently considered historical subjects, including in investigations of different types of social transformation.

Suggested Citation

  • Dmitry S. Zhukov & Valery V. Kanishchev & Sergey K. Lyamin, 2016. "Application of the Theory of Self-Organized Criticality to the Investigation of Historical Processes," SAGE Open, , vol. 6(4), pages 21582440166, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:sagope:v:6:y:2016:i:4:p:2158244016683216
    DOI: 10.1177/2158244016683216
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ichiro Shimada & Tomio Koyama, 2015. "A Theory for Complex Systems Social Change: An Application of a General 'Criticality' Model," Interdisciplinary Description of Complex Systems - scientific journal, Croatian Interdisciplinary Society Provider Homepage: http://indecs.eu, vol. 13(3), pages 342-353.
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    4. Andergassen, Rainer & Nardini, Franco & Ricottilli, Massimo, 2006. "Innovation waves, self-organized criticality and technological convergence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 61(4), pages 710-728, December.
    5. Brunk, Gregory G., 2001. "Self-Organized Criticality: A New Theory of Political Behaviour and Some of Its Implications," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(2), pages 427-445, April.
    6. repec:zna:indecs:v:13:y:2015:i:2:p:342-353 is not listed on IDEAS
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    3. Dmitry Zhukov & Konstantin Kunavin & Sergey Lyamin, 2020. "Online Rebellion: Self-Organized Criticality of Contemporary Protest Movements," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(2), pages 21582440209, May.

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