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Applying Monte Carlo Simulations to a Small Data Analysis of a Case of Economic Growth in COVID-19 Times

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  • Nguyen Ngoc Thach

Abstract

Studies on the going-on COVID-19 pandemic face small sample issues. In this context, Bayesian estimation is considered a viable alternative to frequentist estimation. Demonstrating the Bayesian approach’s advantage in dealing with this problem, our research conducted a case study concerning ASEAN economic growth during the COVID-19 pandemic. By using Monte Carlo standard errors and interval hypothesis testing to check parameter bias within a Bayesian MCMC simulation study, the author obtained significant conclusions as follows: first, in insufficient sample sizes, in contrast to frequentist estimation, the Bayesian framework can offer meaningful results, that is, expansionary monetary and contractionary fiscal policies are positively associated with economic growth; second, in the face of a small sample, by incorporating more information into prior distributions for the model parameters, Bayesian Monte Carlo simulations perform so far better than naïve Bayesian and frequentist estimation; third, in case of a correctly specified prior, the inferences are robust to different prior specifications. The author strongly recommends applying specific informative priors to Bayesian analyses, particularly in small sample investigations.

Suggested Citation

  • Nguyen Ngoc Thach, 2023. "Applying Monte Carlo Simulations to a Small Data Analysis of a Case of Economic Growth in COVID-19 Times," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(2), pages 21582440231, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:sagope:v:13:y:2023:i:2:p:21582440231181540
    DOI: 10.1177/21582440231181540
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