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Are Public Sector Jobs Recession-proof? Were They Ever?

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  • Jason L. Kopelman
  • Harvey S. Rosen

Abstract

We use data from the Displaced Worker Surveys from 1984 to 2012 to investigate the differences in job loss rates between workers in the public and private sectors. Our focus is on how recessions affect the differential between job loss rates in the two sectors. We find that even after accounting for worker characteristics, the probability of job loss is higher for private sector workers than for public sector workers at all levels of government. The advantage of public sector employment in terms of job loss rates generally increases during recessions for all groups of public sector workers. Thus, the answer to the question posed in the title is that public sector jobs, while not generally recession-proof, do offer more security than private sector jobs, and the advantage widens during recessions. These patterns are present across genders, races, and educational groups.

Suggested Citation

  • Jason L. Kopelman & Harvey S. Rosen, 2016. "Are Public Sector Jobs Recession-proof? Were They Ever?," Public Finance Review, , vol. 44(3), pages 370-396, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:pubfin:v:44:y:2016:i:3:p:370-396
    DOI: 10.1177/1091142114565042
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Henry S. Farber, 2011. "Job Loss in the Great Recession: Historial Perspective from the Displaced Workers Survey, 1984-2010," Working Papers 1309, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
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    4. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2009. "Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8769.
    5. Henry S. Farber, 2010. "Job Loss and the Decline in Job Security in the United States," NBER Chapters, in: Labor in the New Economy, pages 223-262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Alicia H. Munnell & Rebecca Cannon Fraenkel, 2013. "Public Sector Workers and Job Security," State and Local Pension Plans Briefs ibslp31, Center for Retirement Research.
    7. Henry S. Farber, 2011. "Job Loss in the Great Recession: Historical Perspective from the Displaced Workers Survey, 1984-2010," NBER Working Papers 17040, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Wilkins, Roger & Wooden, Mark, 2011. "Gender Differences in Rates of Job Dismissal: Why Are Men More Likely to Lose Their Jobs?," IZA Discussion Papers 6225, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Alicia H. Munnell & Rebecca Cannon Fraenkel, 2013. "Public Sector Workers and Job Security," Issues in Brief ibslp31, Center for Retirement Research.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Bharadwaj, Prashant & Bietenbeck, Jan & Lundborg, Petter & Rooth, Dan-Olof, 2019. "Birth weight and vulnerability to a macroeconomic crisis," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 136-144.
    3. Alexander Pacek & Benjamin Radcliff & Mark Brockway, 2019. "Well-Being and the Democratic State: How the Public Sector Promotes Human Happiness," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 143(3), pages 1147-1159, June.

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