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The World Economy: Forecast Summary

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Abstract

The world economy is expected to grow by 3.0 per cent in 2016, an unchanged forecast from the May Review . However, world growth in 2017 is revised down to 3.3 per cent from 3.5 per cent. A number of financial sector risks remain. Many large Euro Area banks are fragile, with the banking system in Italy particularly weak. This is likely to test the viability of the Single Rulebook covering financial services. Inflation is likely to be below target in the OECD economies in 2017. The European Central Bank (ECB) stands ready to ease monetary conditions while the Federal Reserve is likely to raise interest rates very gradually.

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  • N/A, 2016. "The World Economy: Forecast Summary," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 237(1), pages 2-2, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:niesru:v:237:y:2016:i:1:p:f2-f2
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    Cited by:

    1. Duncan, Roberto & Martínez-García, Enrique, 2019. "New perspectives on forecasting inflation in emerging market economies: An empirical assessment," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1008-1031.
    2. Timo Dimitriadis & Andrew J. Patton & Patrick W. Schmidt, 2019. "Testing Forecast Rationality for Measures of Central Tendency," Papers 1910.12545, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2023.
    3. Rafal Weron & Florian Ziel, 2018. "Electricity price forecasting," HSC Research Reports HSC/18/08, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
    4. Gergely Akos Ganics, 2017. "Optimal density forecast combinations," Working Papers 1751, Banco de España.
    5. Kourentzes, Nikolaos & Barrow, Devon & Petropoulos, Fotios, 2019. "Another look at forecast selection and combination: Evidence from forecast pooling," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 226-235.
    6. Jaqueson K. Galimberti, 2020. "Forecasting GDP Growth from Outer Space," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(4), pages 697-722, August.
    7. Thierry Cohignac & Nabil Kazi-Tani, 2019. "Quantile Mixing and Model Uncertainty Measures," Working Papers hal-02405859, HAL.
    8. Jamali, Ibrahim & Yamani, Ehab, 2019. "Out-of-sample exchange rate predictability in emerging markets: Fundamentals versus technical analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 241-263.
    9. Eraslan, Sercan & Schröder, Maximilian, 2019. "Nowcasting GDP with a large factor model space," Discussion Papers 41/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    10. Knut Are Aastveit & James Mitchell & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman van Dijk, 2018. "The Evolution of Forecast Density Combinations in Economics," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-069/III, Tinbergen Institute.

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