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The influence of strategic retirement on the incumbency advantage in US House elections

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  • Benjamin Highton

    (Department of Political Science, University of California, USA, bhighton@ucdavis.edu)

Abstract

Failure to take into account ‘strategic retirement’ leads to inflated estimates of the incumbent electoral advantage. The one attempt to address this issue in the context of US House elections implies that much of the supposed incumbency advantage and most of its presumed increase over time are illusory (Cox and Katz, 2002). This paper identifies possible problems with the Cox and Katz (2002) method and develops a new approach based on simulating the counterfactual condition of incumbents standing for re-election rather than retiring. The results show that when the bias induced by strategic retirement is removed, much of the apparent incumbency advantage and its increase over time remain evident.

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin Highton, 2011. "The influence of strategic retirement on the incumbency advantage in US House elections," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 23(4), pages 431-447, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jothpo:v:23:y:2011:i:4:p:431-447
    DOI: 10.1177/0951629811416323
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    References listed on IDEAS

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