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The Effect of Recruit Quality on College Football Team Performance

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  • Stephen A. Bergman
  • Trevon D. Logan

Abstract

Previous studies have examined the effect of recruiting classes on team performance in college football and found a positive correlation between recruiting classes and success on the field. The relationship between recruit quality and team performance may be overstated, however, if the effect is driven by heterogeneity between teams. In this article, we analyze the effect of recruit quality on team performance controlling for school fixed effects. We collected data from recruiting services to obtain the number of individual recruits by ex ante star rating for every Football Bowl Division (FBS) school for the years 2002-2012. We also record team performance in the regular season and postseason during the same time period. We find that controlling for between-school heterogeneity lowers the estimated effect of recruit quality on wins by more than 25%, but the remaining effect is still statistically and economically significant. Furthermore, we find that within-school variation in recruit quality is an important determinant of the probability of an appearance in the most lucrative bowl games. Our within-school estimates imply that a 5-star recruit is worth more than US$150,000 in expected Bowl Championship Series bowl proceeds to an individual school.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen A. Bergman & Trevon D. Logan, 2016. "The Effect of Recruit Quality on College Football Team Performance," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 17(6), pages 578-600, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jospec:v:17:y:2016:i:6:p:578-600
    DOI: 10.1177/1527002514538266
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. J. Michael Dumond & Allen K. Lynch & Jennifer Platania, 2008. "An Economic Model of the College Football Recruiting Process," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 9(1), pages 67-87, February.
    2. Richard Hofler & James Payne, 1996. "How close to their offensive potential do national football league teams play?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(11), pages 743-747.
    3. Jesse Bricker & Andrew Hanson, 2013. "The Impact of Early Commitment on Games Played: Evidence from College Football Recruiting," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 79(4), pages 971-983, April.
    4. George Langelett, 2003. "The Relationship between Recruiting and Team Performance in Division 1A College Football," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 4(3), pages 240-245, August.
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    1. Stephen A. Bergman & Trevon D. Logan, 2020. "Revenue per Quality of College Football Recruit," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 21(6), pages 571-592, August.
    2. Diehl Kevin A., 2017. "How the Big Ten West Was Won: Football Recruiting," Management of Organizations: Systematic Research, Sciendo, vol. 77(1), pages 25-35, June.
    3. Brent A. Evans & Christopher Clark & Joshua D. Pitts, 2024. "The Effects of Marijuana Legalization on NCAA Men's Basketball Recruiting," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 25(2), pages 200-216, February.
    4. Joseph Kolawole Abon & Rufus O. Adebayo, 2020. "The Use of Marketing as a Tool for Competitive Advantage among Potential and Professional Football Clubs in KZN, South Africa," Eurasian Journal of Business and Management, Eurasian Publications, vol. 8(4), pages 319-335.
    5. Smith, Gary & Hawkins, Jordan & Storrs, Jack, 2019. "College Football: Doing Less With More and More With Less," Economics Department, Working Paper Series 1008, Economics Department, Pomona College, revised 04 Jun 2019.
    6. E. Woodrow Eckard, 2019. "Does the NCAA’s Collegiate Model Promote Competitive Balance? Power-5 Conference Football Versus the NFL," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 20(5), pages 654-670, June.
    7. E. Frank Stephenson, 2022. "Bowl game participation and college football teams' subsequent on-field and recruiting success: a regression discontinuity approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 42(3), pages 1536-1546.
    8. Trey Dronyk-Trosper & Brandli Stitzel, 2017. "Lock-In and Team Effects," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 18(4), pages 376-387, May.
    9. Richard Borghesi, 2018. "The Financial and Competitive Value of NCAA Basketball Recruits," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 19(1), pages 31-49, January.
    10. Richard Borghesi, 2017. "Pay for play: the financial value of NCAA football players," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(46), pages 4657-4667, October.
    11. Brent A. Evans & Joshua D. Pitts, 2018. "Cross-Sport Recruiting Effects in NCAA D1 Football and Basketball," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 19(6), pages 820-842, August.

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