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Please Help Us (or Don’t): External Interventions and Negotiated Settlements in Civil Conflicts

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  • Heather Elko McKibben
  • Amy Skoll

Abstract

How do different types of external intervention affect the likelihood of a negotiated settlement in civil conflicts? Drawing on the negotiation literature, which shows that the nature of the parties’ “best alternative to a negotiated agreement (BATNA)†influences the bargaining process between them, we argue different types of intervention affect governments’ and rebel groups’ BATNAs in different ways. This, in turn, affects the likelihood of a negotiated settlement. To test this argument, we address the fact that interventions are nonrandom, and that characteristics of civil conflicts that lead to different types of intervention also influence the likelihood of a negotiated settlement. We therefore use a two-stage statistical model. The first stage predicts the likelihood of different types of intervention, and drawing on those results, the second stage analyzes the likelihood of a negotiated settlement. The results provide insights into how different types of intervention affect civil conflict outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Heather Elko McKibben & Amy Skoll, 2021. "Please Help Us (or Don’t): External Interventions and Negotiated Settlements in Civil Conflicts," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 65(2-3), pages 480-505, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:65:y:2021:i:2-3:p:480-505
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002720950417
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Richard A. Nielsen & Michael G. Findley & Zachary S. Davis & Tara Candland & Daniel L. Nielson, 2011. "Foreign Aid Shocks as a Cause of Violent Armed Conflict," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(2), pages 219-232, April.
    2. McKibben,Heather Elko, 2015. "State Strategies in International Bargaining," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107086098.
    3. de Ree, Joppe & Nillesen, Eleonora, 2009. "Aiding violence or peace? The impact of foreign aid on the risk of civil conflict in sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 301-313, March.
    4. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2007. "Unintended Consequences: Does Aid Promote Arms Races?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(1), pages 1-27, February.
    5. James D. Fearon, 2004. "Why Do Some Civil Wars Last So Much Longer than Others?," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 41(3), pages 275-301, May.
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