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War and famine, peace and light? The economic dynamics of conflict in Somalia 1993–2009

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  • Anja Shortland

    (King’s College London)

  • Katerina Christopoulou

    (Risk Management Solutions)

  • Charalampos Makatsoris

    (Brunel University)

Abstract

The literature on war economies argues that prolonged civil wars have an economic logic: certain groups may obtain material gains from committing acts of violence and hence resist peacebuilding efforts. Objective tests of these predictions have so far been limited, as corruption and conflict prevent the collection of reliable economic data on the ground. Remote sensing and Geographic Information Science techniques enable us to overcome these problems of terrestrial data collection. Electricity consumption manifested as night-time light emissions recorded in satellite images is proposed as a proxy for changes in disposable income in Somalia’s cities. The nightlight images provide striking illustrations of economic decline and recovery and clearly show the contrast between the stable regions of Northern Somalia and the chaos and anarchy of Southern Somalia. Based on geospatial analyses of settlement patterns in Somali cities, we argue that specific metrics of light output can be used to proxy for the incomes of different social groups. We use geo-coded conflict event data to analyze the economic impact of conflict on local light output and therefore incomes. We find a significant peace dividend for poorer households located at the margins of cities, which benefit both from local stability and more peaceful conditions in the country as a whole. By contrast, the central business districts are relatively well insulated from the effects of local conflict, and violence in Mogadishu has positive effects on light output from cities where humanitarian aid agencies are located. Future peace initiatives need to confront these economic incentives for continued conflict and state failure in Somalia.

Suggested Citation

  • Anja Shortland & Katerina Christopoulou & Charalampos Makatsoris, 2013. "War and famine, peace and light? The economic dynamics of conflict in Somalia 1993–2009," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 50(5), pages 545-561, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:joupea:v:50:y:2013:i:5:p:545-561
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    Cited by:

    1. Christian Otchia & Simplice Asongu, 2020. "Industrial growth in sub-Saharan Africa: evidence from machine learning with insights from nightlight satellite images," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 48(8), pages 1421-1441, December.
    2. Tobias Ide & Miguel Rodriguez Lopez & Christiane Fröhlich & Jürgen Scheffran, 2021. "Pathways to water conflict during drought in the MENA region," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 58(3), pages 568-582, May.
    3. Philip Verwimp & Patricia Justino & Tilman Brück, 2018. "The Microeconomics of Violent Conflict," HiCN Working Papers 280, Households in Conflict Network.
    4. Konstantin Ash & Nick Obradovich, 2020. "Climatic Stress, Internal Migration, and Syrian Civil War Onset," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 64(1), pages 3-31, January.
    5. Lopes da Fonseca, Mariana & Baskaran, Thushyanthan, 2015. "Re-evaluating the economic costs of conflicts," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 246, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    6. Takaaki Masaki, 2016. "The impact of intergovernmental transfers on local revenue generation in Africa: Evidence from Tanzania," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2016-113, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    7. Babak Rezaeedaryakenari & Steven T. Landis & Cameron G. Thies, 2020. "Food price volatilities and civilian victimization in Africa," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 37(2), pages 193-214, March.
    8. Takaaki Masaki, 2016. "The impact of intergovernmental transfers on local revenue generation in Africa: Evidence from Tanzania," WIDER Working Paper Series 113, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    9. Daniel D. Bonneau & Joshua C. Hall & Yang Zhou, 2022. "Institutional implant and economic stagnation: a counterfactual study of Somalia," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 190(3), pages 483-503, March.
    10. Ibrahim Hassan Barrow, 2020. "Inter-Clan Conflicts in Somalia: When Peace Happen (Case Study Baidoa District, Bay Region)," International Journal of Human Resource Studies, Macrothink Institute, vol. 10(4), pages 111-111, December.

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