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Moon Phases, Mood and Stock Market Returns

Author

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  • Christos Floros

    (Christos Floros, Department of Economics, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth, PO1 3DE, UK, and Department of Finance and Insurance, TEI of Crete, 72100, Greece. E-mail: Christos.Floros@port.ac.uk)

  • Yong Tan

    (Yong Tan, Department of Economics, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth, PO1 3DE, UK.)

Abstract

We employ recent data from 59 international emerging and mature stock markets to provide new evidence of a lunar cycle (full and new moon) effect on their stock market returns. Using a threshold generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (TGARCH) model, we further examine the linkages between efficient-market theory, calendar-related effects and investors’ mood resulting from moon phases. The empirical results show significant full moon effects in six markets, and significant new moon effects in eight markets. In line with the theory, we report significant positive effect of new moon on stock market returns in five cases (UK, Switzerland, Bangladesh, Chile and Cyprus), while a negative effect of full moon is reported for the case of Jordan only. In addition, we find that lunar effects are strongly influenced by the calendar anomalies (Monday effect and January effect); several markets—mostly emerging markets—show evidence of full/new moon effects as well as Monday/January effects (Bangladesh, Brazil, Chile, Tunisia, Belgium, Cyprus). Further, we prove that the lunar phases are stronger outside America. These findings are recommended to investors, financial managers and analysts dealing with international stock indices. JEL Classification: G02, G14, G15

Suggested Citation

  • Christos Floros & Yong Tan, 2013. "Moon Phases, Mood and Stock Market Returns," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 12(1), pages 107-127, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:emffin:v:12:y:2013:i:1:p:107-127
    DOI: 10.1177/0972652712473405
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Angel Pardo & Enric Valor, 2003. "Spanish Stock Returns: Where is the Weather Effect?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 9(1), pages 117-126, March.
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    3. Keef, Stephen P. & Khaled, Mohammed S., 2011. "Are investors moonstruck? Further international evidence on lunar phases and stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 56-63, January.
    4. Andy Saporoschenko, 2011. "The effect of Santa Ana wind conditions and cloudiness on Southern California stock returns," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(10), pages 683-694.
    5. Bohl, Martin T. & Schuppli, Michael & Siklos, Pierre L., 2010. "Stock return seasonalities and investor structure: Evidence from China's B-share markets," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 190-201, March.
    6. Yuan, Kathy & Zheng, Lu & Zhu, Qiaoqiao, 2006. "Are investors moonstruck? Lunar phases and stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 1-23, January.
    7. Brian Lucey, 2010. "Lunar seasonality in precious metal returns?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(9), pages 835-838.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Ender Demir, 2015. "Aviation Accidents and Stock Market Reaction: Evidence from Borsa Istanbul," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 3(1), pages 51-56.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Moon; mood; emerging and mature markets; TGARCH; stock returns;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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