IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rnd/arjebs/v10y2018i1p59-68.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Analysis of the 2008 US Financial Crisis: An Intervention Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Katleho Daniel Makatjane
  • Edward Kagiso Molefe
  • Roscoe Bertrum van Wyk

Abstract

The current study investigates the impact of the 2008 US financial crises on the real exchange rate in South Africa. The data used in this empirical analysis is for the period from January 2000 to June 2017. The Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) intervention charter was used to carry out the analysis. Results revealed that the financial crises period in South Africa occurred in March 2008 and significantly affected the exchange rate. Hence, the impact pattern was abrupt. Using the SARIMA model as a benchmark, four error metrics; to be precise mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean error (ME) and Mean percentage error (MPE) was used to assess the performance of the intervention model and SARIMA model. The results of the SARIMA intervention model produced better forecasts as compared to that one of SARIMA model.

Suggested Citation

  • Katleho Daniel Makatjane & Edward Kagiso Molefe & Roscoe Bertrum van Wyk, 2018. "The Analysis of the 2008 US Financial Crisis: An Intervention Approach," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 10(1), pages 59-68.
    • Handle: RePEc:rnd:arjebs:v:10:y:2018:i:1:p:59-68
    DOI: 10.22610/jebs.v10i1(J).2089
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ojs.amhinternational.com/index.php/jebs/article/view/2089/1582
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://ojs.amhinternational.com/index.php/jebs/article/view/2089
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22610/jebs.v10i1(J).2089?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lai, Sue Ling & Lu, Whei-Li, 2005. "Impact analysis of September 11 on air travel demand in the USA," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(6), pages 455-458.
    2. Wei Pan, 2001. "Akaike's Information Criterion in Generalized Estimating Equations," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 57(1), pages 120-125, March.
    3. Ntebogang Dinah Moroke, 2014. "The robustness and accuracy of Box-Jenkins ARIMA in modeling and forecasting household debt in South Africa," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 6(9), pages 748-759.
    4. Lucjan T. Orlowski, 2008. "Stages of the Ongoing Global Financial Crisis: Is There a Wandering Asset-Price Bubble?," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0372, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    5. Claeskens,Gerda & Hjort,Nils Lid, 2008. "Model Selection and Model Averaging," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521852258.
    6. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2008. "Stages of the 2007/2008 Global Financial Crisis Is There a Wandering Asset-Price Bubble?," Economics Discussion Papers 2008-43, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    7. Ette Harrison Etuk & Alapuye Gbolu Eleki, 2017. "Arima Intervention Analysis of Monthly Xaf-Ngn Exchange Rates Occasioned By Nigerian Economic Recession," Noble International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Noble Academic Publsiher, vol. 2(4), pages 76-81, April.
    8. Jennifer Min & Christine Lim & Hsien-Hung Kung, 2011. "Intervention analysis of SARS on Japanese tourism demand for Taiwan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 91-102, January.
    9. Wim Naudé, 2009. "The Financial Crisis of 2008 and the Developing Countries," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2009-01, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    10. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2008. "Stages of the Ongoing Global Financial Crisis: Is There a Wandering Asset Bubble?," IWH Discussion Papers 11/2008, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Azasakhe Nkcubeko Nomsobo & Roscoe Bertrum van Wyk, 2018. "The Impact of Short- Term Interest Rates on Bank Funding Costs," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 10(3), pages 141-148.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Abu S. Amin & Lucjan T. Orlowski, 2014. "Returns, Volatilities, and Correlations Across Mature, Regional, and Frontier Markets: Evidence from South Asia," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(3), pages 5-27, May.
    2. Talani, Leila Simona, 2014. "The Political Economy of Italy in the EMU: What Went Wrong?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 1(2), pages 133-149.
    3. Gabrisch, Hubert & Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2010. "The Extreme Risk Problem for Monetary Policies of the Euro-Candidates," IWH Discussion Papers 12/2010, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    4. Titelman Kardonsky, Daniel & Pérez Caldentey, Esteban & Pineda Salazar, Ramón, 2009. "The bigness of smallness: the financial crisis, its contagion mechanisms and its effects in Latin America," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
    5. Lucjan T. Orlowski, 2012. "Financial crisis and extreme market risks: Evidence from Europe," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 21(3), pages 120-130, September.
    6. Di Carlo, Anastasia, 2010. "The Private Equity market in Europe. Rise of a new cycle or tail of the recession?," EIF Working Paper Series 2010/03, European Investment Fund (EIF).
    7. Solís Baltodano, María José, 2016. "The Catalan health budget rationing problem," Working Papers 2072/290741, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
    8. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2015. "From pit to electronic trading: Impact on price volatility of U.S. Treasury futures," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 3-9.
    9. Meri Boshkoska & Spiro Lazaroski, 2018. "Leading Factors Of The Global Financial Crisis – The Us Evidence," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 5, pages 4-13, October.
    10. Leila Simona TALANI, 2014. "The Political Economy of Italy in the EMU: What Went Wrong?," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 133-149, December.
    11. Pusch, Toralf, 2012. "The role of uncertainty in the euro crisis: A reconsideration of liquidity preference theory," ZÖSS-Discussion Papers 31, University of Hamburg, Centre for Economic and Sociological Studies (CESS/ZÖSS).
    12. Hubert Gabrisch & Lucjan T. Orlowski, 2010. "Interest Rate Convergence in Euro-Candidate Countries: Volatility Dynamics of Sovereign Bond Yields," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(6), pages 69-85, November.
    13. Hubert Gabrisch & Lucjan T Orlowski, 2011. "Extreme Risks in Financial Markets and Monetary Policies of the Euro-Candidates," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 53(4), pages 511-534, December.
    14. Richard T. Harrison & Rob Baldock, 2015. "Financing SME growth in the UK: meeting the challenges after the global financial crisis," Venture Capital, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-6, April.
    15. Lucjan T. Orlowski, 2021. "The 2020 Pandemic: Economic repercussions and policy responses," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(1), pages 20-26, January.
    16. Toralf Pusch, 2017. "The role of uncertainty in the euro crisis – an application of liquidity preference theory," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(4), pages 527-548, July.
    17. Choy, Swee Yew & Chit, Myint Moe & Teo, Wing Leong, 2021. "Sovereign credit ratings: Discovering unorthodox factors and variables," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    18. Nizar, Muhammad Afdi, 2019. "Baik-Buruk Inovasi Keuangan [Financial Innovation : The Good and the Bad Sides]," MPRA Paper 97921, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2015. "Monetary expansion and bank credit: A lack of spark," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 510-520.
    20. Gabrisch, Hubert & Orlowski, Lucjan T. & Pusch, Toralf, 2012. "Sovereign default Risk in the Euro-Periphery and the Euro-Candidate Countries," MPRA Paper 41265, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rnd:arjebs:v:10:y:2018:i:1:p:59-68. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Muhammad Tayyab (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://ojs.amhinternational.com/index.php/jebs .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.