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The Value of Information for Crop Forecasting with Bayesian Speculators: Theory and Empirical Results

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  • David F. Bradford
  • Harry H. Kelejian

Abstract

This paper develops a model of the way in which information about current conditions is translated by Bayesian speculative inventory holders into forecasts of the flow of harvests, and in turn, into forecasts of prices in a competitive market system. Improvement in the information system (e.g., more accurate observations) affects the commodity price distribution, and this change can be evaluated using Marshallian surplus from consumption. The model is applied empirically to the case of wheat crop forecasting in the United States.

Suggested Citation

  • David F. Bradford & Harry H. Kelejian, 1978. "The Value of Information for Crop Forecasting with Bayesian Speculators: Theory and Empirical Results," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 9(1), pages 123-144, Spring.
    • Handle: RePEc:rje:bellje:v:9:y:1978:i:spring:p:123-144
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    Cited by:

    1. Norton, George W., 1987. "Evaluating Social Science Research in Agriculture," Evaluating Agricultural Research and Productivity, Proceedings of a Workshop, Atlanta, Georgia, January 29-30, 1987, Miscellaneous Publication 52 50028, University of Minnesota, Agricultural Experiment Station.
    2. Skold, Karl Durwood, 1989. "The integration of alternative information systems: an application to the Hogs and Pigs report," ISU General Staff Papers 1989010108000010239, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    3. Christophe Gouel, 2020. "The Value of Public Information in Storable Commodity Markets: Application to the Soybean Market," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(3), pages 846-865, May.
    4. Karali, Berna & Isengildina-Massa, Olga & Irwin, Scott H. & Adjemian, Michael K. & Johansson, Robert, 2019. "Are USDA reports still news to changing crop markets?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 66-76.
    5. Gardner, Bruce L., 1997. "Returns to Policy-Related Social Science Research in Agriculture," Working Papers 197845, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    6. Jean-Paul Chavas & Rulon D. Pope, 1984. "Information: Its Measurement and Valuation," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 66(5), pages 705-710.
    7. Irwin, Scott H. & Sanders, Dwight R. & Good, Darrel L., 2014. "Evaluation of Selected USDA WAOB and NASS Forecasts and Estimates in Corn and Soybeans," Marketing and Outlook Research Reports 183477, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
    8. Ates, Aaron M. & Lusk, Jayson L. & Brorsen, B. Wade, 2019. "Forecasting Meat Prices Using Consumer Expectations from the Food Demand Survey (FooDS)," Journal of Food Distribution Research, Food Distribution Research Society, vol. 50(1), March.
    9. Rafsnider, Giles T. & Skold, Melvin D. & Driscoll, Richard S., 1983. "Increases In Costs And Returns Due To Intensifying Range Forage Production Surveys: An Information Economic Analysis," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 8(1), pages 1-10, July.
    10. Irwin, Scott H., 1994. "The Economic Value of Situation and Outlook Programs: A Review of Theory and Empirical Evidence," Re-Engineering Marketing Policies for Food and Agriculture - FAMC 1994 Conference 265986, Food and Agricultural Marketing Consortium (FAMC).
    11. Taylor, Christopher W., 2012. "Market Reactions to USDA Reports: State Analysis of Corn Price Response," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124661, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. Good, Darrel L. & Irwin, Scott H. & Isengildina, Olga, 2006. "The Value of USDA Situation and Outlook Information in Hog and Cattle Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 31(2), pages 1-21, August.
    13. Lusk, Jayson L., 2016. "From Farm Income to Food Consumption: Valuing USDA Data Products," C-FARE Reports 266593, Council on Food, Agricultural, and Resource Economics (C-FARE).
    14. Pruitt, J. Ross & Tonsor, Glynn T. & Brooks, Kathleen R., 2014. "Eliciting Expert Opinion on Components of USDA Market Livestock Information," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 169389, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    15. Bruce D. Spencer, 1982. "Feasibility of Benefit-Cost Analysis of Data Programs," Evaluation Review, , vol. 6(5), pages 649-672, October.

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