Global Economic Integration and Land Use Change
AbstractThe goal of this work is to investigate the role of global integration in determining long-run patterns of land-use change. We utilize a dynamic general equilibrium model that has been modified to incorporate the most important economic features driving global land demand and supply, and simulate a baseline period from 1997- 2025 over which land rents world-wide rise sharply and the global allocation of land between agriculture and forestry changes rather significantly in some regions. Through a series of restricted simulations of the model, we are able to isolate the impact on land markets of the following elements of growth and globalization: (i) population growth, (ii) real income growth, (iii) access of new forest lands, and (iv) international trade. We found that international trade plays a very substantial role in mediating between the land-abundant, slower growing economies of the Americas and Australia/New Zealand, and the land-scarce, rapidly growing economies of Asia. In summary, when combined, the forces of globalization are expected to play a large role in determining the pattern of land use change.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University in its journal Journal of Economic Integration.
Volume (Year): 23 (2008)
Issue (Month): ()
land use; climate change policy; baseline; general equilibrium; agro-ecological zones;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
- Q24 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Land
- R14 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Land Use Patterns
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- Hertel, Thomas W., 2011.
"The Global Supply and Demand for Agricultural Land in 2050: A Perfect Storm in the Making?,"
2011 Conference (55th), February 8-11, 2011, Melbourne, Australia
100557, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
- Hertel, Thomas W., 2010. "The Global Supply and Demand for Agricultural Land in 2050: A Perfect Storm in the Making?," 2010 Annual Meeting, July 25-27, 2010, Denver, Colorado 92639, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
- Bouët, Antoine & Dimaranan, Betina V. & Valin, Hugo, 2010. "Modeling the global trade and environmental impacts of biofuel policies," IFPRI discussion papers 1018, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Hertel, Thomas W. & Keeney, Roman, 2009. "The Poverty Impacts of Global Commodity Trade Liberalization," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper 52786, World Bank.
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