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Global Economic Integration and Land Use Change


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  • Golub, Alla

    (Purdue University)

  • W. Hertel, Thomas

    (Purdue University)


The goal of this work is to investigate the role of global integration in determining long-run patterns of land-use change. We utilize a dynamic general equilibrium model that has been modified to incorporate the most important economic features driving global land demand and supply, and simulate a baseline period from 1997- 2025 over which land rents world-wide rise sharply and the global allocation of land between agriculture and forestry changes rather significantly in some regions. Through a series of restricted simulations of the model, we are able to isolate the impact on land markets of the following elements of growth and globalization: (i) population growth, (ii) real income growth, (iii) access of new forest lands, and (iv) international trade. We found that international trade plays a very substantial role in mediating between the land-abundant, slower growing economies of the Americas and Australia/New Zealand, and the land-scarce, rapidly growing economies of Asia. In summary, when combined, the forces of globalization are expected to play a large role in determining the pattern of land use change.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University in its journal Journal of Economic Integration.

Volume (Year): 23 (2008)
Issue (Month): ()
Pages: 463-488

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Handle: RePEc:ris:integr:0442

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Related research

Keywords: land use; climate change policy; baseline; general equilibrium; agro-ecological zones;

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Cited by:
  1. Hertel, Thomas W., 2011. "The Global Supply and Demand for Agricultural Land in 2050: A Perfect Storm in the Making?," 2011 Conference (55th), February 8-11, 2011, Melbourne, Australia 100557, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
  2. Bou√ęt, Antoine & Dimaranan, Betina V. & Valin, Hugo, 2010. "Modeling the global trade and environmental impacts of biofuel policies," IFPRI discussion papers 1018, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  3. Hertel, Thomas W. & Keeney, Roman, 2009. "The Poverty Impacts of Global Commodity Trade Liberalization," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper 52786, World Bank.


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