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Credit default swaps and CDS-bond basis with Russian companies: a review and an analysis of the effects of the short selling ban during the second great contraction

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  • Frolova, Elvina

    ()
    (National Research University Higher School of Economics)

  • Fantazzini, Dean

    ()
    (Moscow School of Economics, Moscow State University; National Research University Higher School of Economics)

Abstract

This paper reviews the theory of Credit Default Swaps (CDS), the main characteristics of the CDS market, and how to estimate the non-default component of the yield spreads as the basis between the actual CDS premium and the hypothetical CDS premium implied by bond yields. We then analyze the most liquid CDS on Russian companies and compute the relative CDS-Bond basis from 2005 till 2010, paying particular attention to the period when a short selling ban was into effect in Russian financial markets from September 18, 2008 till June 15, 2009. We found that, while the basis was mainly negative before the ban, it then became largely positive during the period the ban was enforced. After the ban was lifted, the basis has started to decrease but still remains positive for all companies examined. This evidence therefore seems to support the hypothesis that a positive basis can be justified by the difficulty of arbitrage caused by short selling costs.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS" in its journal Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 25 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 3-24

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Handle: RePEc:ris:apltrx:0161

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Web page: http://appliedeconometrics.cemi.rssi.ru/

Related research

Keywords: credit; default swaps; basis; short selling; emerging markets; Russian market; credit risk; Russian stocks;

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References

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  1. Darrell Duffie & Leandro Siata & Ke Wang, 2006. "Multi-Period Corporate Default Prediction With Stochastic Covariates," NBER Working Papers 11962, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Francis A. Longstaff & Sanjay Mithal & Eric Neis, 2005. "Corporate Yield Spreads: Default Risk or Liquidity? New Evidence from the Credit Default Swap Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2213-2253, October.
  3. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May.
  4. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
  5. Roberto Blanco & Simon Brennan & Ian W. Marsh, 2004. "An empirical analysis of the dynamic relationship between investment grade bonds and credit default swaps," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0401, Banco de Espa�a.
  6. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
  7. Kucuk, Ugur N., 2010. "Non-default Component of Sovereign Emerging Market Yield Spreads and its Determinants: Evidence from Credit Default Swap Market," MPRA Paper 27428, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Hull, John & Predescu, Mirela & White, Alan, 2004. "The relationship between credit default swap spreads, bond yields, and credit rating announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2789-2811, November.
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