IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rfa/aefjnl/v5y2018i4p12-23.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Regularized Age-Period-Cohort Modeling of Opioid Mortality Rates

Author

Listed:
  • Gary Venter

Abstract

Opioid mortality rates have been increasing sharply, but not uniformly by age. Peak ages have recently dropped from the mid-40s to the mid-30s. There are two age peaks that have been moving up diagonally, with years of birth around 1960 and 1980 staying near the tops, and those around 1970 generally lower. We model this history with the Lee-Carter plus cohorts mortality model, which includes variable trends by age, and a generalization of it. This can be fit by maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) but statistical methods that shrink parameters towards zero (regularization) give lower predictive variances than MLE does. We address how to apply regularization to age-period-cohort models. Frequentist and Bayesian regularization are explored. The latter has some practical advantages.

Suggested Citation

  • Gary Venter, 2018. "Regularized Age-Period-Cohort Modeling of Opioid Mortality Rates," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 5(4), pages 12-23, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:rfa:aefjnl:v:5:y:2018:i:4:p:12-23
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://redfame.com/journal/index.php/aef/article/view/3215/3449
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://redfame.com/journal/index.php/aef/article/view/3215
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Philip Oreopoulos & Till von Wachter & Andrew Heisz, 2006. "The Short- and Long-Term Career Effects of Graduating in a Recession: Hysteresis and Heterogeneity in the Market for College Graduates," NBER Working Papers 12159, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Maarten J. Bijlsma & Rhian M. Daniel & Fanny Janssen & Bianca L. De Stavola, 2017. "An Assessment and Extension of the Mechanism-Based Approach to the Identification of Age-Period-Cohort Models," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(2), pages 721-743, April.
    3. Andrew Hunt & David Blake, 2014. "A General Procedure for Constructing Mortality Models," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 116-138.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kuhnen, Camelia M., 2010. "Searching for Jobs: Evidence from MBA Graduates," MPRA Paper 21975, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Illoong Kwon & Eva Meyersson Milgrom & Seiwoon Hwang, 2010. "Cohort Effects in Promotions and Wages: Evidence from Sweden and the United States," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 45(3).
    3. Karim Barigou & Stéphane Loisel & Yahia Salhi, 2020. "Parsimonious Predictive Mortality Modeling by Regularization and Cross-Validation with and without Covid-Type Effect," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-18, December.
    4. Petru Crudu, 2023. "Long-term effects of early adverse labour market conditions: A Causal Machine Learning approach," Working Papers 2023:21, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    5. Michael W. L. Elsby & Bart Hobijn & Aysegul Sahin, 2010. "The Labor Market in the Great Recession," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 41(1 (Spring), pages 1-69.
    6. Otto Kässi, 2014. "Earnings dynamics of men and women in Finland: permanent inequality versus earnings instability," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 451-477, March.
    7. Cockx, Bart & Ghirelli, Corinna, 2016. "Scars of recessions in a rigid labor market," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 162-176.
    8. Blake, David & El Karoui, Nicole & Loisel, Stéphane & MacMinn, Richard, 2018. "Longevity risk and capital markets: The 2015–16 update," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 157-173.
    9. Dickens William T. & Triest Robert K., 2012. "Potential Effects of the Great Recession on the U.S. Labor Market," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 1-41, October.
    10. Daniel G. Sullivan & Till von Wachter, 2006. "Mortality, mass-layoffs, and career outcomes: an analysis using administrative data," Working Paper Series WP-06-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    11. Sylvia Frühwirth‐Schnatter & Christoph Pamminger & Andrea Weber & Rudolf Winter‐Ebmer, 2012. "Labor market entry and earnings dynamics: Bayesian inference using mixtures‐of‐experts Markov chain clustering," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(7), pages 1116-1137, November.
    12. Immervoll, Herwig, 2012. "Reforming the Benefit System to 'Make Work Pay': Options and Priorities in a Weak Labour Market," IZA Policy Papers 50, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Baptista, Rui & Lima, Francisco & Preto, Miguel Torres, 2012. "How former business owners fare in the labor market? Job assignment and earnings," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 263-276.
    14. Haaland, Venke Furre, 2013. "The Lost Generation: Effects of Youth Labor Market Opportunities on Long-Term Labor Market Outcomes," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2013/8, University of Stavanger.
    15. Mr. Shekhar Aiyar & Mr. Rodney Ramcharan, 2010. "What Can International Cricket Teach Us About the Role of Luck in Labor Markets?," IMF Working Papers 2010/225, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Michael Waldman, 2012. "Theory and Evidence in Internal LaborMarkets [The Handbook of Organizational Economics]," Introductory Chapters,, Princeton University Press.
    17. Blake, David & Cairns, Andrew J.G., 2021. "Longevity risk and capital markets: The 2019-20 update," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 395-439.
    18. Bravo, Jorge M. & Ayuso, Mercedes & Holzmann, Robert & Palmer, Edward, 2021. "Addressing the life expectancy gap in pension policy," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 200-221.
    19. David Atkin, 2016. "Endogenous Skill Acquisition and Export Manufacturing in Mexico," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(8), pages 2046-2085, August.
    20. Schinzinger, Edo & Denuit, Michel M. & Christiansen, Marcus C., 2016. "A multivariate evolutionary credibility model for mortality improvement rates," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 70-81.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    MCMC; Lee-Carter; regularization; cohorts; opioid mortality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rfa:aefjnl:v:5:y:2018:i:4:p:12-23. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Redfame publishing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cepflch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.