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Reglas fiscales y la volatilidad del producto

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Author Info
Montoro, Carlos
Moreno, Eduardo

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Abstract

En este trabajo extendemos el modelo neoclásico de Baxter y King (1993) para evaluar los efectos sobre el ciclo económico de dos reglas fiscales alternativas. Las reglas que analizamos son similares a aquellas implementadas en la práctica por algunos países, tales como limites al déficit fiscal estructural (que elimina los efectos del ciclo económico sobre la recaudación) y limites al déficit fiscal convencional. Enfocamos nuestro análisis en un modelo calibrado para reproducir las características de la economía Peruana. En este modelo evaluamos los efectos sobre la dinámica de corto plazo y las condiciones para la estabilidad del equilibrio. Encontramos que la regla de déficit económico estructural produce una postura contracíclica de la política fiscal, lo cual reduce significativamente la volatilidad del producto. Asimismo, encontramos que una condición para que la regla estructural pueda ser implementada es que el gasto público no financiero reaccione en proporción mayor a uno sobre cambios en los gastos financieros. Clasificación JEL: E62, H30, H60

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Article provided by Banco Central de Reserva del Perú in its journal Revista Estudios Económicos.

Volume (Year): (2008)
Issue (Month): 15 ()
Pages: 65-92
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Handle: RePEc:rbp:esteco:ree-15-04

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  1. Baxter, Marianne & King, Robert G, 1993. "Fiscal Policy in General Equilibrium," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 315-34, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Ludvigson, Sydney, 1996. "The macroeconomic effects of government debt in a stochastic growth model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 25-45, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Chari, V V & Christiano, Lawrence J & Kehoe, Patrick J, 1994. "Optimal Fiscal Policy in a Business Cycle Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(4), pages 617-52, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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