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Impact de l'introduction d'une dose de capitalisation en Tunisie : simulations à l'aide d'un modèle à générations imbriquées

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  • Mehdi Ben Braham

Abstract

[fre] Nous présentons dans ce papier l’impact des évolutions démographiques sur l’équilibre financier du système de retraite en Tunisie. Il s’agit par la suite d’analyser, à l’aide d’un modèle à générations imbriquées en économie fermée, l’impact de deux types de réforme introduisant une dose de capitalisation, parallèlement au système par répartition existant. Le premier scénario de réforme correspond à l’introduction d’un fonds de réserve, le second à la mise en place d’un pilier capitalisé. Nous mesurons l’impact sur le niveau d’épargne et de consommation. Le modèle met en évidence un effet d’éviction important qui limite l’impact sur l’épargne. Les simulations montrent que le poids de la réforme est davantage supporté par certaines générations. [eng] This paper discusses the impact of aging on the financial equilibrium of the Tunisian retirement system and the macroeconomic implications of reform, including a partial switch to pre-funding. We use a stylized , closed economy and an overlapping-generation model to analyze the impact of the introduction of a multi-pillar system combining the pay-as-you-go (PAYG) and pre-funded approaches (including temporarily and permanently pre-funded plans). The analysis focuses on (1) the response of saving to the reform at the aggregate level and (2) cohort-specific accumulation and consumption profiles. The reform generates a strong crowding-out effect, restraining capital accumulation. Our simulations also show that the burden of the reform is spread unevenly among cohorts.

Suggested Citation

  • Mehdi Ben Braham, 2007. "Impact de l'introduction d'une dose de capitalisation en Tunisie : simulations à l'aide d'un modèle à générations imbriquées," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 180(4), pages 189-199.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2007_num_180_4_7679
    DOI: 10.3406/ecop.2007.7679
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2007.7679
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    3. Martin Feldstein & Andrew Samwick, 1998. "The Transition Path in Privatizing Social Security," NBER Chapters, in: Privatizing Social Security, pages 215-264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Didier Blanchet, 1992. "Retraites et croissance à long terme. Un essai de simulation," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 105(4), pages 1-16.
    5. Martin Feldstein, 1998. "Introduction to "Privatizing Social Security"," NBER Chapters, in: Privatizing Social Security, pages 1-29, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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