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Le potentiel de croissance du commerce des pays d'Europe centrale et orientale avec la France et ses principaux partenaires

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  • Frédérique Festoc
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    Abstract

    [fre] Le potentiel de croissance du commerce des pays d'Europe centrale et orientale avec la France . et ses principaux partenaires par Frédérique Festoc . Dans cet article, nous proposons un examen de l'évolution des échanges commerciaux entre l'Union européenne et les Peco depuis le début de la transition, en insistant sur les principaux partenaires des Peco au sein de l'UE, et en étudiant la composition sectorielle de ces échanges. Puis, nous nous attachons à déterminer le potentiel de croissance des échanges entre l'UE et les Peco, en nous appuyant sur les modèles de gravitation, afin de mesurer les effets d'une libéralisation de leurs échanges. Nous montrons ainsi que non seulement l'Union européenne est rapidement devenue le principal partenaire commercial des pays d'Europe centrale et orientale, mais, de surcroît, elle est destinée à le rester, d'après les résultats de notre estimation. Enfin, nous abordons la question des flux d'investissements directs étrangers. [eng] Potential Growth in Central and East European Countries' Trade with France and its Leading Partners . by Frédérique Festoc . In this paper, we propose a study of the growth in trade between the European Union and the CEECs since the start of the transition. Our study focuses on the CEECs' leading EU partners and examines the breakdown of this trade by sector. We then endeavour to determine the growth potential for trade between the EU and the CEECs using gravitation models to measure the effects CEEC trade deregulation. We thus show that the European Union has rapidly become the leading trading partner for Central and East European Countries. Moreover, the results of our estimation show that the EU is likely to remain in this position. Lastly, we address the question of direct foreign investment flows.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Économie & prévision.

    Volume (Year): 128 (1997)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 161-181

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    Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_1997_num_128_2_5855

    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.1997.5855
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    Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/ecop

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    1. Wang, Zhen Kun & Winters, L. Alan, 1991. "The Trading Potential of Eastern Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 610, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1985. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 474-81, August.
    3. Havrylyshyn, Oleh & Pritchett, Lant, 1991. "European trade patterns after the transition," Policy Research Working Paper Series 748, The World Bank.
    4. Hamilton, C.B. & Winters, L.A., 1992. "Opening Up International Trade in Eastern Europe," Papers 511, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
    5. Baldwin, Richard, 1993. "The Potential for Trade Between the Countries of EFTA and Central and Eastern Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 853, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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