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Long-term Predictive Ability of Bankruptcy Models in the Czech Republic: Evidence from 2007-2012

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  • Ondřej Machek

Abstract

Bankruptcy models are a common tool of financial analysis to predict the financial distress of companies. However, in the recent years, the instability and risk of the overall economic environment have underlined the need for accurate tools to predict bankruptcy and assess the overall performance of companies. In this article, we analyze the ex-ante predictive ability of selected bankruptcy and solvency models commonly used in financial analysis: Kralicek quick test, Taffler model, the IN99 and IN05 indexes, and Altman Z'-score models in the case of Czech companies from 2007 to 2012. We determined the percentage of cases when these models correctly predicted failures of companies up to five years in advance, and found that the IN05 and IN99 credibility indexes provided the best results, as well as the Altman Z'-score model. However, the predictive ability of the Taffler model and Kralicek quicktest has only been limited.

Suggested Citation

  • Ondřej Machek, 2014. "Long-term Predictive Ability of Bankruptcy Models in the Czech Republic: Evidence from 2007-2012," Central European Business Review, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2014(2), pages 14-17.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlcbr:v:2014:y:2014:i:2:id:80:p:14-17
    DOI: 10.18267/j.cebr.80
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Inka Neumaierová & Ivan Neumaier, 2014. "INFA Performance Indicator Diagnostic System," Central European Business Review, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2014(1), pages 35-41.
    2. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy: A Discriminant Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(1), pages 193-194, March.
    3. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Błażej Prusak, 2018. "Review of Research into Enterprise Bankruptcy Prediction in Selected Central and Eastern European Countries," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-28, June.
    2. Jan Plaček & Luboš Smrčka & Markéta Arltová & Jaroslav Schönfeld, 2016. "The Relationship Between GDP Per Inhabitant and the Quality of Insolvency Proceedings (An Analysis on the Basis of Surveying Five Groups of Countries)," Ekonomika a Management, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(4).
    3. Daniela Rybárová & Helena Majdúchová & Peter Štetka & Darina Luščíková, 2021. "Reliability and Accuracy of Alternative Default Prediction Models: Evidence from Slovakia," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-33, November.
    4. Enrico Supino & Nicola Piras, 2022. "Le performance dei modelli di credit scoring in contesti di forte instabilit? macroeconomica: il ruolo delle Reti Neurali Artificiali," MANAGEMENT CONTROL, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2022(2), pages 41-61.
    5. Roman Čibera & Tomáš Krabec, 2016. "Behavioral Finance and Asset Valuation in Insolvency Proceedings," Ekonomika a Management, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(1).
    6. T.G. Saji, 2018. "Financial Distress and Stock Market Failures: Lessons from Indian Realty Sector," Vision, , vol. 22(1), pages 50-60, March.
    7. Veronika Hedija, 2019. "Are Bankruptcy Models A Good Predictor Of Firm Financial Distress Of Travel Agents In The Czech Republic?," Economy & Business Journal, International Scientific Publications, Bulgaria, vol. 13(1), pages 87-93.
    8. Dagmar Camska & Jiri Klecka, 2020. "Comparison of Prediction Models Applied in Economic Recession and Expansion," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-16, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    bankruptcy prediction; Altman Z'-score; Taffler model; Kralicek quick test; IN05; IN99;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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