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Predicted preference conjoint analysis

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  • Sonja Radas
  • Dražen Prelec

Abstract

In this paper we propose a new method of eliciting market research information. Instead of asking respondents for their personal choices and preferences, we ask respondents to predict the choices of other respondents to the survey. Such predictions tap respondents’ knowledge of peers, whether based on direct social contacts or on more general cultural information. The effectiveness of this approach has already been demonstrated in the context of political polling. Here we extend it to market research, specifically, to conjoint analysis. An advantage of the new approach is that it can elicit reliable responses in situations where people are not comfortable with disclosing their true preferences, but may be willing to give information about people around them. A theoretical argument demonstrates that predictions should yield utility estimates that are more accurate. These theoretical results are confirmed in four online experiments.

Suggested Citation

  • Sonja Radas & Dražen Prelec, 2021. "Predicted preference conjoint analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(8), pages 1-16, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0256010
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0256010
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dražen Prelec & H. Sebastian Seung & John McCoy, 2017. "A solution to the single-question crowd wisdom problem," Nature, Nature, vol. 541(7638), pages 532-535, January.
    2. David Court & Benjamin Gillen & Jordi McKenzie & Charles R. Plott, 2018. "Two information aggregation mechanisms for predicting the opening weekend box office revenues of films: Boxoffice Prophecy and Guess of Guesses," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 65(1), pages 25-54, January.
    3. Green, Paul E & Srinivasan, V, 1978. "Conjoint Analysis in Consumer Research: Issues and Outlook," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 5(2), pages 103-123, Se.
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