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Relative age effect in elite soccer: More early-born players, but no better valued, and no paragon clubs or countries

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  • John R Doyle
  • Paul A Bottomley

Abstract

The paper analyses two datasets of elite soccer players (top 1000 professionals and UEFA Under-19 Youth League). In both, we find a Relative Age Effect (RAE) for frequency, but not for value. That is, while there are more players born at the start of the competition year, their transfer values are no higher, nor are they given more game time. We use Poisson regression to derive a transparent index of the discrimination present in RAE. Also, because Poisson is valid for small frequency counts, it supports analysis at the disaggregated levels of country and club. From this, we conclude there are no paragon clubs or countries immune to RAE; that is clubs and countries do not differ systematically in the RAE they experience; also, that Poisson regression is a powerful and flexible method of analysing RAE data.

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  • John R Doyle & Paul A Bottomley, 2018. "Relative age effect in elite soccer: More early-born players, but no better valued, and no paragon clubs or countries," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(2), pages 1-13, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0192209
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0192209
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John R Doyle & Paul A Bottomley & Rob Angell, 2017. "Tails of the Travelling Gaussian model and the relative age effect: Tales of age discrimination and wasted talent," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(4), pages 1-22, April.
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    5. Steffen Herm & Hans-Markus Callsen-Bracker & Henning Kreis, 2014. "When the crowd evaluates soccer players’ market values: Accuracy and evaluation attributes of an online community," Sport Management Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 484-492, October.
    6. Dorsett, Richard, 2014. "The effect of temporary in-work support on employment retention: Evidence from a field experiment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 61-71.
    7. Hjertstrand, Per & Norbäck, Pehr-Johan & Persson, lars, 2017. "The Educated Underdog Becomes the Ultimate Superstar," Working Paper Series 1176, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    8. Luca Fumarco & Benjamin G Gibbs & Jonathan A Jarvis & Giambattista Rossi, 2017. "The relative age effect reversal among the National Hockey League elite," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(8), pages 1-16, August.
    9. Herm, Steffen & Callsen-Bracker, Hans-Markus & Kreis, Henning, 2014. "When the crowd evaluates soccer players’ market values: Accuracy and evaluation attributes of an online community," Sport Management Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 484-492.
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    Cited by:

    1. Florentino Huertas & Rafael Ballester & Honorato José Gines & Abdel Karim Hamidi & Consuelo Moratal & Juan Lupiáñez, 2019. "Relative Age Effect in the Sport Environment. Role of Physical Fitness and Cognitive Function in Youth Soccer Players," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-19, August.
    2. Ante Rađa & Johnny Padulo & Igor Jelaska & Luca Paolo Ardigò & Luca Fumarco, 2018. "Relative age effect and second-tiers: No second chance for later-born players," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(8), pages 1-12, August.
    3. Christian Thue Bjørndal & Live S Luteberget & Kevin Till & Simen Holm, 2018. "The relative age effect in selection to international team matches in Norwegian handball," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(12), pages 1-12, December.
    4. Paolo Riccardo Brustio & Corrado Lupo & Alexandru Nicolae Ungureanu & Riccardo Frati & Alberto Rainoldi & Gennaro Boccia, 2018. "The relative age effect is larger in Italian soccer top-level youth categories and smaller in Serie A," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(4), pages 1-12, April.
    5. Benito Perez-Gonzalez & Alvaro Fernandez-Luna & Daniel Castillo & Pablo Burillo, 2020. "Are European Soccer Players Worth More If They Are Born Early in the Year? Relative Age Effect on Player Market Value," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(9), pages 1-10, May.
    6. Jose Luis Felipe & Alvaro Fernandez-Luna & Pablo Burillo & Luis Eduardo de la Riva & Javier Sanchez-Sanchez & Jorge Garcia-Unanue, 2020. "Money Talks: Team Variables and Player Positions that Most Influence the Market Value of Professional Male Footballers in Europe," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-8, May.
    7. Eleanor Langham-Walsh & Victoria Gottwald & James Hardy, 2021. "Relative age effect? No “flipping” way! Apparatus dependent inverse relative age effects in elite, women’s artistic gymnastics," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(6), pages 1-9, June.

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