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A Time-Series Analysis of the 20th Century Climate Simulations Produced for the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report

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  • Francisco Estrada
  • Pierre Perron
  • Carlos Gay-García
  • Benjamín Martínez-López

Abstract

In this paper evidence of anthropogenic influence over the warming of the 20th century is presented and the debate regarding the time-series properties of global temperatures is addressed in depth. The 20th century global temperature simulations produced for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fourth Assessment Report and a set of the radiative forcing series used to drive them are analyzed using modern econometric techniques. Results show that both temperatures and radiative forcing series share similar time-series properties and a common nonlinear secular movement. This long-term co-movement is characterized by the existence of time-ordered breaks in the slope of their trend functions. The evidence presented in this paper suggests that while natural forcing factors may help explain the warming of the first part of the century, anthropogenic forcing has been its main driver since the 1970’s. In terms of Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, significant anthropogenic interference with the climate system has already occurred and the current climate models are capable of accurately simulating the response of the climate system, even if it consists in a rapid or abrupt change, to changes in external forcing factors. This paper presents a new methodological approach for conducting time-series based attribution studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Francisco Estrada & Pierre Perron & Carlos Gay-García & Benjamín Martínez-López, 2013. "A Time-Series Analysis of the 20th Century Climate Simulations Produced for the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(3), pages 1-10, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0060017
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0060017
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    10. Kim, Dukpa & Perron, Pierre, 2009. "Unit root tests allowing for a break in the trend function at an unknown time under both the null and alternative hypotheses," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 148(1), pages 1-13, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gadea Rivas, María Dolores & Gonzalo, Jesús, 2020. "Trends in distributional characteristics: Existence of global warming," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 214(1), pages 153-174.
    2. Marco Gallegati, 2018. "A systematic wavelet-based exploratory analysis of climatic variables," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 148(1), pages 325-338, May.
    3. Kim, Dukpa & Oka, Tatsushi & Estrada, Francisco & Perron, Pierre, 2020. "Inference related to common breaks in a multivariate system with joined segmented trends with applications to global and hemispheric temperatures," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 214(1), pages 130-152.
    4. Francisco Estrada & Pierre Perron, 2019. "Breaks, Trends and the Attribution of Climate Change: A Time-Series Analysis," Revista Economía, Fondo Editorial - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, vol. 42(83), pages 1-31.
    5. Pierre Perron & Eduardo Zorita & Francisco Estrada & Pierre Perron, 2017. "Extracting and Analyzing the Warming Trend in Global and Hemispheric Temperatures," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(5), pages 711-732, September.
    6. Chang, Yoosoon & Kaufmann, Robert K. & Kim, Chang Sik & Miller, J. Isaac & Park, Joon Y. & Park, Sungkeun, 2020. "Evaluating trends in time series of distributions: A spatial fingerprint of human effects on climate," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 214(1), pages 274-294.
    7. Francisco Estrada & Richard S J Tol & Wouter J W Botzen, 2017. "Global economic impacts of climate variability and change during the 20th century," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(2), pages 1-16, February.

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