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Investment, Inflation and Economic Growth Nexus

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Author Info

  • Nasir Iqbal

    (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad)

  • Saima Nawaz

    (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad)

Abstract

The paper has twofold objectives. Firstly, the impact of the inflation rate on economic growth with the possibility of two threshold levels for Pakistan using annual data from 1961 to 2008 is examined and secondly, nonlinear relationship between inflation and investment has been investigated. Inflation and growth models support the existence of a nonlinear relationship with two thresholds (6 percent and 11 percent). Inflation below the first threshold affects economic growth positively but insignificantly; at moderate rates of inflation, between the two threshold levels, the effect of inflation is significant and strongly negative and at high rates of inflation, above the second threshold, the ma rginal impact of additional inflation on economic growth diminishes but is still significantly negative. Investment is one of the possible channels through which inflation influences economic growth and the analysis indicates the nonlinear relationship between these two variables with only one threshold at 7 percent. Rate of inflation below the threshold level has positive but insignificant impact, while above the threshold it has strong negative and significant impact on the investment. Therefore, it is desirable to keep the inflation below 6 percent because it may be helpful for the achievement of robust economic growth and investment.

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File URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2009/Volume4/863-874.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Pakistan Institute of Development Economics in its journal The Pakistan Development Review.

Volume (Year): 48 (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 863–874

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Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:48:y:2009:i:4:p:863-874

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Keywords: Investment; Inflation; Economic Growth; Nonlinear; Pakistan;

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References

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  1. Bruce E. Hansen, 1996. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 319., Boston College Department of Economics, revised 12 May 1998.
  2. João R. Faria & Francisco Galrão Carneiro, 2001. "Does High Inflation Affect Growth in the Long and Short Run?," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 89-105, May.
  3. Bullard, James & Keating, John W., 1995. "The long-run relationship between inflation and output in postwar economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 477-496, December.
  4. David, Drukker & Pedro, Gomis-Porqueras & Paula, Hernandez -erme, 2005. "Threshold effects in the relationship between inflation and growth: a new panel-data approach," MPRA Paper 38225, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Bruce D. Smith & John H. Boyd, 1998. "Capital market imperfections in a monetary growth model," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 241-273.
  6. Qaiser Munir & Kasim Mansur, 2009. "Non-Linearity between Inflation Rate and GDP Growth in Malaysia," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(3), pages 1555-1569.
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Cited by:
  1. Hasanov, Fakhri, 2011. "Relationship between inflation and economic growth in Azerbaijani economy: is there any threshold effect?," MPRA Paper 33494, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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