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An empirical analysis of the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis in the Philippines

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Author Info

  • Richard Ballester

    (National Economic and Development Authority)

  • Joy Sinay

    (National Economic and Development Authority)

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    Abstract

    We reexamine the relationship between growth and exports of the Philippines for the period 1977–2009 using the methods of Sharma and Panagiotidis [2005] and Feder [1983]. With the shift in the current economic policy toward inclusive growth, we find it necessary to assess if indeed the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis really worked for the country. Specifically, our research investigates the cointegration of exports, imports, and output using the Johansen cointegration test and the Breitung cointegration test; the Granger-causality between exports, investments, and output; and the impact of macroeconomic shocks by employing a vector autoregressive model. In summary, we find that the ELG hypothesis appears to be empirically unsupported for the Philippine case.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by University of the Philippines School of Economics and Philippine Economic Society in its journal Philippine Review of Economics.

    Volume (Year): 50 (2013)
    Issue (Month): 1 (June)
    Pages: 83-110

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    Handle: RePEc:phs:prejrn:v:50:y:2013:i:1:p:83-110

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    Web page: http://www.econ.upd.edu.ph/
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    Related research

    Keywords: export-led growth hypothesis; Breitung cointegration test; vector autoregressive model;

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