A semiparametric assessment of export-led growth in the Philippines
AbstractThe export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis for the Philippines is examined by adopting a semiparametric approach under two levels of temporal aggregation. To assess the impact of model specification on the ELG hypothesis, parametric and semiparametric error-correction models (ECMs) are estimated using Philippine annual and quarterly data on gross domestic product (GDP), exports, exchange rates, and gross fixed-capital formation, focusing on the role of exchange rates. The causal relationship between exports and economic growth is examined using the Granger-causality procedure. It can be concluded that for the Philippines, the ELG hypothesis is (a) sensitive to model specification and (b) affected by different levels of temporal aggregation and by the inclusion or exclusion of exchange rates. The general results on bidirectional causality between exports and economic growth suggest that the Philippines could enjoy economic prosperity by strengthening its trade and investment policy and gearing it toward opening up the economy.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by University of the Philippines School of Economics and Philippine Economic Society in its journal Philippine Review of Economics.
Volume (Year): 43 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 (December)
export-led growth; semiparametric error-correction model; Granger causality;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
- C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
- C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
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