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U.K. Small Firm Bankruptcy Prediction: A Logit Analysis of Financial Trend-, Industry-, and Macro-Effects

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  • Robert C. Cressy

    (SME Centre, University of Warwick)

Abstract

Much work has been done in the last two decades to estimate the determinants of bankruptcy of large firms. Very little work appears to have been attempted in the area of small firm bankruptcy. This paper goes some way to remedy the deficiency by estimating conditional logistic probability regressions for small firm bankruptcy on a recently constructed U.K. accounts database.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert C. Cressy, 1992. "U.K. Small Firm Bankruptcy Prediction: A Logit Analysis of Financial Trend-, Industry-, and Macro-Effects," Journal of Entrepreneurial Finance, Pepperdine University, Graziadio School of Business and Management, vol. 1(3), pages 233-253, Spring.
    • Handle: RePEc:pep:journl:v:1:y:1992:i:3:p:233-253
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Edmister, Robert O., 1972. "An Empirical Test of Financial Ratio Analysis for Small Business Failure Prediction," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(2), pages 1477-1493, March.
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    3. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
    4. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1982. "Selection and the Evolution of Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 649-670, May.
    5. Peel, MJ & Peel, DA & Pope, PF, 1986. "Predicting corporate failure-- Some results for the UK corporate sector," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 5-12.
    6. Amemiya, Takeshi, 1981. "Qualitative Response Models: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 1483-1536, December.
    7. Beaver, Wh, 1966. "Financial Ratios As Predictors Of Failure," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4, pages 71-111.
    8. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    9. Van Horne, James C, 1976. "Optimal Initiation of Bankruptcy Proceedings by Debt Holders," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(3), pages 897-910, June.
    10. Zmijewski, Me, 1984. "Methodological Issues Related To The Estimation Of Financial Distress Prediction Models," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22, pages 59-82.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Suzan Hol, 2006. "The influence of the business cycle on bankruptcy probability," Discussion Papers 466, Statistics Norway, Research Department.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bankruptcy ; UK; Financial Trend; Industry Effects;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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