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Rational inference: deductive, inductive and probabilistic thinking

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  • R J Ormerod

    (University of Warwick)

Abstract

The paper reviews three modes of rational inference: deductive, inductive and probabilistic. Many examples of each can be found in scientific endeavour, professional practice and public discourse. However, while the strengths and weaknesses of deductive and inductive inference are well established, the implications of the emerging probabilistic orientation are still being worked through. The paper discusses some of the recent findings in psychology and philosophy, and speculates about the implications for scientific and professional practice in general and OR in particular. It is suggested that the probabilistic orientation and Bayesian approach can provide an epistemological lens through which to view the claims of different approaches to inference. Some suggestions for further research are made.

Suggested Citation

  • R J Ormerod, 2010. "Rational inference: deductive, inductive and probabilistic thinking," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 61(8), pages 1207-1223, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:61:y:2010:i:8:d:10.1057_jors.2009.96
    DOI: 10.1057/jors.2009.96
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. R Rajagopal & E del Castillo, 2007. "A Bayesian approach for multiple criteria decision making with applications in Design for Six Sigma," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 58(6), pages 779-790, June.
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    4. I Munro & J Mingers, 2004. "Response to Richard Ormerod," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 55(1), pages 90-93, January.
    5. R J Ormerod, 2002. "On the nature of OR: taking stock," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 53(5), pages 475-491, May.
    6. R J Ormerod, 2009. "The history and ideas of critical rationalism: the philosophy of Karl Popper and its implications for OR," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 60(4), pages 441-460, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Richard John Ormerod, 2021. "Pragmatism in professional practice," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(6), pages 797-816, November.
    2. Wei-Lun Chang & Yi-Pei Chen, 2019. "Way too sentimental? a credible model for online reviews," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 453-468, April.
    3. Inès, Gicquel & Herbert, Castéran, 2016. "Linking usage and shopping: How value experiences can distinguish consumers," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 165-174.
    4. van Antwerpen, Coen & Curtis, Neville J., 2016. "A data collection and presentation methodology for decision support: A case study of hand-held mine detection devices," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 251(1), pages 237-251.

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