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Functional estimation of activity criticality indices and sensitivity analysis of expected project completion time

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  • J-G Cho

    (Dong-Eui University)

  • B-J Yum

    (Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology)

Abstract

For a PERT network, a new method is developed for estimating the criticality index of activity i (ACI i ) as a function of the expected duration of activity i (μ i ) and for the sensitivity analysis of the expected project completion time (μ T ) with respect to μ i . The proposed method evaluates the frequency of activity i being on the critical path, and thereby its ACI i using Monte Carlo simulation or a Taguchi orthogonal array experiment at several values of μ i , fits a logistic regression model for estimating ACI i as a function of μ i , and then, using the estimated ACI i function, evaluates the amount of change in μ T when μ i is changed by a given amount. Unlike the previous works, the proposed method models ACI i as a nonlinear (ie, logistic) function of μ i , which can be used to estimate the amount of change in μ T for a variety of changes in μ i . Computational results indicate that the performance of the proposed method is comparable to that of direct Monte Carlo simulation.

Suggested Citation

  • J-G Cho & B-J Yum, 2004. "Functional estimation of activity criticality indices and sensitivity analysis of expected project completion time," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 55(8), pages 850-859, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:55:y:2004:i:8:d:10.1057_palgrave.jors.2601739
    DOI: 10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601739
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Elmaghraby, Salah E., 2000. "On criticality and sensitivity in activity networks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 127(2), pages 220-238, December.
    2. Elmaghraby, S. E. & Fathi, Y. & Taner, M. R., 1999. "On the sensitivity of project variability to activity mean duration," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(3), pages 219-232, September.
    3. George B. Kleindorfer, 1971. "Bounding Distributions for a Stochastic Acyclic Network," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 19(7), pages 1586-1601, December.
    4. R. A. Bowman, 1995. "Efficient Estimation of Arc Criticalities in Stochastic Activity Networks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 41(1), pages 58-67, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Barbosa, Valmir C. & Ferreira, Fernando M.L. & Kling, Daniel V. & Lopes, Eduardo & Protti, Fbio & Schmitz, Eber A., 2009. "Structured construction and simulation of nondeterministic stochastic activity networks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 198(1), pages 266-274, October.
    2. Azaron, Amir & Fatemi Ghomi, S.M.T., 2008. "Lower bound for the mean project completion time in dynamic PERT networks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 186(1), pages 120-127, April.
    3. R A Bowman, 2007. "Efficient sensitivity analysis of PERT network performance measures to significant changes in activity time parameters," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 58(10), pages 1354-1360, October.

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