The IO–PS in the context of GVC-related policymaking: The case of the South African automotive industry

Recent years have seen renewed interest in evaluating the effectiveness of industrial policy, especially in the context of global value chains. One approach that might add a complementary view in this domain is product space analysis. To date, product space-based value chain analyses have focused on theoretical debates only, or on empirical applications for a single year. In this paper, we employ the input–output product space (IO–PS) framework combined with a time dimension. We thereby evaluate the effectiveness of industrial policies within a value chain over time. The paper focuses on the case of the South African automotive value chain for the years 1995 to 2017. We evaluate ex post the implemented industrial policies and confirm their (partial) success. We then use the framework to make ex ante recommendations to improve the current policy approach and find that it might pay off to target specific sub-sectors in the future. The results illustrate how the framework can be used to evaluate industrial policies and to identify which parts of the global value chain should be targeted to foster both short- and long-term growth. We also highlight shortcomings of the approach which might limit its application.