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Distributional Aspects of Stabilization Programs in Developing Countries (Les programmes de stabilisation des pays en développement examinés sous l'aspect de la répartition du revenu) (Los programas de estabilización y la distribución del ingreso en los países en desarrollo)

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Author Info

  • Omotunde Johnson

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Joanne Salop

    (International Monetary Fund)

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    Abstract

    This paper reports the results of some preliminary research into the repercussions, for income distribution, of stabilization programs associated with the use of Fund resources in the upper credit tranches. In the first section, it explores the relationship between the balance of payments and the distribution of income from a theoretical perspective. Here the general concern is whether adjustment influences the distribution of income in some systematic manner; the particular concern is to delineate the conditions under which a decline in the real wage is necessary for adjustment actually to take place. Using neoclassical analysis, one finds that the ratio of the nominal wage to the price of exports must decline, but whether this involves a fall in the overall real wage depends on many variables, including the relative proportions of traded and nontraded goods in the consumer's market basket. Second, it presents a qualitative analysis of the distributional effects of the measures that tend to be included in these programs, viz., ceilings on net credit expansion, currency depreciation, and the relaxation and simplification of exchange restrictions and controls. Finally, drawing on unpublished case studies, it discusses the distributional consequences of stabilization programs in Bolivia (1972-73), Ghana (1966-70), Indonesia (1966-74), and the Philippines (1970-76). /// Cet article rend compte des résultats d'un certain nombre de recherches préliminaires sur les conséquences qu'entraînent, pour la répartition du revenu, les programmes de stabilisation dont la réalisation est liée à l'utilisation des ressources du Fonds dans les tranches supérieures de crédit. Dans une première partie, les auteurs explorent la relation entre la balance des paiements et la répartition du revenu en se plaçant sous l'angle théorique. Le but recherché ici est de savoir si, en général, l'ajustement influence la répartition du revenu d'une façon systématique quelconque. Plus particulièrement, les auteurs veulent arriver à déterminer les conditions dans lesquelles une diminution du salaire réel est nécessaire pour que cet ajustement puisse réellement avoir lieu. En faisant appel à l'analyse néo-classique, on s'aperçoit que le ratio du salaire nominal au prix des exportations doit diminuer, mais que cela implique ou non une diminution du salaire réel global dépendra d'un grand nombre de variables, et notamment des proportions relatives de produits marchands et de produits non marchands dans le panier de consommation. Deuxièmement, les auteurs procèdent à une analyse qualitative des effets redistributifs des mesures généralement incluses dans ces programmes comme, par exemple, les plafonds fixant l'expansion nette du crédit, la dévaluation de la monnaie et l'assouplissement ainsi que la simplification des restrictions de change et de contrôle des changes. Finalement, en s'aidant d'études de cas non publiées, les auteurs examinent la façon dont la réalisation de programmes de stabilisation a affecté la répartition du revenu en Bolivie (1972-73), au Ghana (1966-70), en Indonésie (1966-74) et aux Philippines (1970-76). /// En este trabajo se presentan los resultados de estudios preliminares sobre la repercusión que tienen en la distribución del ingreso los programas de estabilización vinculados al uso de los recursos del Fondo en los tramos superiores de crédito. En la primera sección se analiza la relación entre la balanza de pagos y la distribución del ingreso desde el punto de vista teórico. En esta sección el objetivo general es determinar si el ajuste influye en la distribución del ingreso de manera sistemática, mientras que el objetivo específico es determinar las circunstancias que harían necesaria una disminución del salario real para que tenga lugar el ajuste. Mediante un análisis neoclásico se deduce que debe disminuir la relación entre el salario nominal y el precio de las exportaciones, pero la posibilidad de que esto traiga aparejada o no una disminución del salario real global depende de numerosas variables, entre ellas la proporción relativa que tengan los productos que son objeto de comercio, y los que no lo son, en la cesta utilizada para calcular el índice de precios al consumidor. Además, se presenta un análisis cualitativo del efecto que ejercen en la distribución del ingreso las medidas que se tiende a incluir en dichos programas, como la imposición de topes a la expansión neta del crédito, la depreciación de la moneda, y la liberalización y simplificación de las restricciones y controles cambiarios. Finalmente se analiza, en base a estudios inéditos de casos, la influencia que tuvieron en la distribución del ingreso los programas de estabilización aplicados en Bolivia (1972-73), Filipinas (1970-76), Ghana (1966-70) e Indonesia (1966-74).

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Palgrave Macmillan in its journal Staff Papers - International Monetary Fund.

    Volume (Year): 27 (1980)
    Issue (Month): 1 (March)
    Pages: 1-23

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    Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:27:y:1980:i:1:p:1-23

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    Cited by:
    1. Michael Tomz & Mark L. J. Wright, 2012. "Empirical research on sovereign debt and default," Working Paper Series WP-2012-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    2. Doris A. Oberdabernig, 2012. "Revisiting the Effects of IMF Programs on Poverty and Inequality," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp144, Vienna University of Economics, Department of Economics.
    3. Raymond Vreeland, James, 2002. "The Effect of IMF Programs on Labor," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 121-139, January.
    4. Singh, A & Tabatabai H, 1992. "World economic crisis and third world agriculture: the changing role of agriculture in economic development," ILO Working Papers 286955, International Labour Organization.
    5. Pastor, Manuel Jr. & Conroy, Michael E., 1995. "Distributional implications of macroeconomic policy: Theory and applications to El Salvador," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(12), pages 2117-2131, December.

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