IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/assmgt/v19y2018i5d10.1057_s41260-018-0083-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Managing the financial consequences of weather variability

Author

Listed:
  • Jean-Louis Bertrand

    (ESSCA School of Management)

  • Xavier Brusset

    (UCA)

Abstract

Cool summers or warm winters affect sales of scores of products of all businesses operating in the 70% of activity sectors that are exposed to weather variability. The renewed interest in investigating the role of weather on business activity is prompted by the development of the weather index-based financial market, fostered by increasing weather variability and more reliable weather data. Drawing on the case of a manufacturer of sunscreen products, we model the influence of weather on sales in a way that supports the implementation of index-based financial cover. We evaluate the maximum potential sales loss caused by adverse weather, construct a weather index-based cover, and demonstrate its effectiveness in reducing sales variability. Knowledge of models that link weather and sales allows analysts and asset managers to better understand the contribution of weather to sales, to anticipate its effects on financial performance, and to implement risk mitigation strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Louis Bertrand & Xavier Brusset, 2018. "Managing the financial consequences of weather variability," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 19(5), pages 301-315, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:assmgt:v:19:y:2018:i:5:d:10.1057_s41260-018-0083-x
    DOI: 10.1057/s41260-018-0083-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1057/s41260-018-0083-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1057/s41260-018-0083-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:dau:papers:123456789/3433 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Juliusz Pres, 2009. "Measuring Non-Catastrophic Weather Risks for Businesses," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 34(3), pages 425-439, July.
    3. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
    4. Jewson,Stephen & Brix,Anders With contributions by-Name:Ziehmann,Christine, 2005. "Weather Derivative Valuation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521843713.
    5. Bertrand, Jean-Louis & Brusset, Xavier & Fortin, Maxime, 2015. "Assessing and hedging the cost of unseasonal weather: Case of the apparel sector," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 244(1), pages 261-276.
    6. Martha Starr-McCluer, 2000. "The effects of weather on retail sales," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-08, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Patrick L. Brockett & Mulong Wang & Chuanhou Yang, 2005. "Weather Derivatives and Weather Risk Management," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 8(1), pages 127-140, March.
    8. Murray, Kyle B. & Di Muro, Fabrizio & Finn, Adam & Popkowski Leszczyc, Peter, 2010. "The effect of weather on consumer spending," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 512-520.
    9. Helyette Geman & M. Leonardi, 2005. "Alternative Approaches to Weather Derivatives Pricing," Post-Print halshs-00144304, HAL.
    10. repec:dau:papers:123456789/1386 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Mu, Xiaoyi, 2007. "Weather, storage, and natural gas price dynamics: Fundamentals and volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 46-63, January.
    12. Miia Parnaudeau & Jean-Louis Bertrand, 2018. "The contribution of weather variability to economic sectors," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(43), pages 4632-4649, September.
    13. Granger, C.W.J. & Pesaran, M. H., 1999. "Economic and Statistical Measures of Forecast Accuracy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9910, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Martínez-de-Albéniz, Victor & Belkaid, Abdel, 2021. "Here comes the sun: Fashion goods retailing under weather fluctuations," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 294(3), pages 820-830.
    2. Bertrand, Jean-Louis & Brusset, Xavier & Chabot, Miia, 2021. "Protecting franchise chains against weather risk: A design science approach," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 187-200.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bertrand, Jean-Louis & Brusset, Xavier & Chabot, Miia, 2021. "Protecting franchise chains against weather risk: A design science approach," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 187-200.
    2. Å tulec, Ivana & Petljak, Kristina & Naletina, Dora, 2019. "Weather impact on retail sales: How can weather derivatives help with adverse weather deviations?," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 1-10.
    3. Bertrand, Jean-Louis & Brusset, Xavier & Fortin, Maxime, 2015. "Assessing and hedging the cost of unseasonal weather: Case of the apparel sector," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 244(1), pages 261-276.
    4. Bertrand, Jean-Louis & Parnaudeau, Miia, 2019. "Understanding the economic effects of abnormal weather to mitigate the risk of business failures," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 391-402.
    5. Ivana Štulec, 2017. "Effectiveness of Weather Derivatives as a Risk Management Tool in Food Retail: The Case of Croatia," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-15, January.
    6. Brigitte Roth Tran, 2019. "Sellin’ in the Rain: Adaptation to Weather and Climate in the Retail Sector," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-067, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Verstraete, Gylian & Aghezzaf, El-Houssaine & Desmet, Bram, 2019. "A data-driven framework for predicting weather impact on high-volume low-margin retail products," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 169-177.
    8. Badorf, Florian & Hoberg, Kai, 2020. "The impact of daily weather on retail sales: An empirical study in brick-and-mortar stores," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    9. Brigitte Roth Tran, 2022. "Sellin' in the Rain: Weather, Climate, and Retail Sales," Working Paper Series 2022-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    10. Miguel, Fusco & Dario, Bacchini & Esteban Otto, Thomasz, 2014. "Riesgo Agropecuario: Incidencia Económica e Innovaciones para su mitigación. El caso de Argentina [Agricultural Risk Managment: Economic Incidence and Mitigation Innovations. The Case of Argentina]," MPRA Paper 56408, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Gheorghe Hurduzeu & Laura Gabriela Constantin, 2008. "Several Aspects Regarding Weather and Weather Derivatives," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 11(27), pages 187-202, January.
    12. Rui Zhou & Johnny Siu-Hang Li & Jeffrey Pai, 2019. "Pricing temperature derivatives with a filtered historical simulation approach," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(15), pages 1462-1484, October.
    13. Stefan Lamp, 2023. "Sunspots That Matter: The Effect of Weather on Solar Technology Adoption," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 84(4), pages 1179-1219, April.
    14. Barbera, Michael & Northey, Gavin & Septianto, Felix & Spanjaard, Daniela, 2018. "Those prices are HOT! How temperature-related visual cues anchor expectations of price and value," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 178-181.
    15. Woodard, Joshua D. & Garcia, Philip, 2008. "Weather Derivatives, Spatial Aggregation, and Systemic Risk: Implications for Reinsurance Hedging," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 33(1), pages 1-18, April.
    16. Jr‐Wei Huang & Sharon S. Yang & Chuang‐Chang Chang, 2018. "Modeling temperature behaviors: Application to weather derivative valuation," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(9), pages 1152-1175, September.
    17. Martínez-de-Albéniz, Victor & Belkaid, Abdel, 2021. "Here comes the sun: Fashion goods retailing under weather fluctuations," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 294(3), pages 820-830.
    18. KEVORCHIAN, Cristian & GAVRILESCU, Camelia & HURDUZEU, Gheorghe, 2013. "Qualitative Risk Coverage In Agriculture Through Derivative Financial Instruments Based On Selyaninov Indices," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 17(3), pages 19-32.
    19. Eirini Konstantinidi & Gkaren Papazian & George Skiadopoulos, 2015. "Modeling the Dynamics of Temperature with a View to Weather Derivatives," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anastasios G Malliaris & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 17, pages 511-544, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    20. Anna Pauliina Sandqvist & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2021. "Is it good to be bad or bad to be good? Assessing the aggregate impact of abnormal weather on consumer spending," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(6), pages 3059-3085, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:assmgt:v:19:y:2018:i:5:d:10.1057_s41260-018-0083-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.