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Efectos del canal del crŽdito sobre el precio de la vivienda nueva en Medell’n - Colombia || Credit channel effects on new residential property prices: Evidence from Medell’n, Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • García Rendon, John Jairo

    (Departamento de Economía, Universidad EAFIT (Colombia))

  • Cossio Sepúlveda, Daniel Mateo

    (Universidad EAFIT (Colombia))

  • Mesa Urhan, Ricardo

    (Universidad EAFIT (Colombia))

Abstract

El objetivo de esta investigaci—n es analizar el efecto que tiene el canal del crédito en la determinaci—n del precio de la vivienda nueva en Medell’n - Colombia. Utilizando un modelo de ecuaciones simultáneas, estimado por sistema de ecuaciones aparentemente no relacionadas y mínimos cuadrados en tres etapas, los principales resultados evidencian que la tasa de interŽs hipotecaria y el Fondo de Reserva para la Estabilizaci—n de la Cartera Hipotecaria (FRECH) son las variables que presentan mayor efecto sobre los precios de la demanda de vivienda nueva; mientras que la tasa de interŽs presenta una relaci—n inversa con la demanda de vivienda, el FRECH tiene una relaci—n positiva. Una ca’da del 1% de la tasa de interŽs hace que el precio del M2 aumente en $COP 46.865. Esto resalta la importancia que tiene el canal del crŽdito para incentivar el sector constructor de una econom’a. Además, por medio de un modelo de vectores autorregresivos estructurales, encontramos que el impacto de un choque de la Unidad de Valor Real (UVR) sobre el precio de la vivienda nueva en Medellín es que el precio del metro cuadrado es elástico ante variaciones en la UVR en el corto plazo (2 meses). || We analyze the credit channel effects on new residential property prices in Medellín, Colombia, using a simultaneous equations model. Our empirical results show that the main determinants of new residential properties prices are mortgage interest rates and the availability of government sponsored subsidies to homebuyers (GS). An increase of one percent in mortgage interest rates reduces the demand of new residential properties and increases their price by COP $46,865 per square meter. Greater availability of government of GS increases the demand for new residential properties. Using a structural VAR, we find that a positive shock to a proxy for the real interest rate (unit of real value, URV) of one standard deviation leads to a reduction of the price of new residential properties in Medellín.

Suggested Citation

  • García Rendon, John Jairo & Cossio Sepúlveda, Daniel Mateo & Mesa Urhan, Ricardo, 2018. "Efectos del canal del crŽdito sobre el precio de la vivienda nueva en Medell’n - Colombia || Credit channel effects on new residential property prices: Evidence from Medell’n, Colombia," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 26(1), pages 104-127, Diciembre.
    • Handle: RePEc:pab:rmcpee:v:26:y:2018:i:1:p:104-127
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    vivienda nueva; modelo de oferta y demanda; UVR; VARE; SANR; MC3E; Medell’n; Colombia; new housing; supply and demand model; URV; SVAR; SUR; 3SLS Medellín; Colombia.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
    • L16 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics; Macroeconomic Industrial Structure
    • L74 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - Construction

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