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A Time-Series Analysis of Corporate Payout Policies

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  • Oded Sarig

Abstract

I conduct a time-series analysis of corporate payout policies that accounts for the dynamic nature of these decisions and for the interaction among investment decisions and payout policies. The estimation is done with a VAR model of investments, earnings, total payout, and the split of the total payout between dividends and share repurchases. I control for changes in the legal treatment of share repurchases in 1982 and for changes in the relative taxation of dividends and capital gains. I find that: (i) an increase in the taxation of capital gains relative to dividends shifts the split of total payout away from share repurchase and toward dividends; (ii) corporate investment decisions lead payout policies and not the other way around; (iii) increases in corporate total payout are associated with long-term subsequent increases in earnings; (iv) changes in the composition of corporate payout away from share repurchases and toward dividends are associated with subsequent increases in earnings.

Suggested Citation

  • Oded Sarig, 2004. "A Time-Series Analysis of Corporate Payout Policies," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 8(4), pages 515-536.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:revfin:v:8:y:2004:i:4:p:515-536.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rof/8.4.515
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    Cited by:

    1. Hillmann, Lisa, 2023. "Dividend taxation and the ownership structure of private firms," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    2. Ji, Philip Inyeob, 2016. "Is corporate payout taxation a long run phenomenon? Evidence from international data," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 84-100.
    3. Jacob, Martin, 2010. "Taxation, Dividends, and Share Repurchases: Taking Evidence Global," Working Paper Series, Center for Fiscal Studies 2010:10, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    4. Wang, David Han-Min, 2010. "Corporate investment, financing, and dividend policies in the high-tech industry," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 63(5), pages 486-489, May.
    5. Thi Thai Ha Le & Xuan Hung Nguyen & Manh Dung Tran, 2019. "Determinants of Dividend Payout Policy in Emerging Markets: Evidence from the ASEAN Region," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 9(4), pages 531-546, April.
    6. Rubin, Amir & Smith, Daniel R., 2009. "Institutional ownership, volatility and dividends," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 627-639, April.

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